Top Analyst Identifies $65K as Bitcoin’s True Capitulation Zone

Bitcoin’s True Bottom May Be at $65K, Predicts On-Chain Analyst James Check, with Key Support at $50K

Where is Bitcoin (BTC) headed next?

While there’s a chance that Bitcoin has already reached its bottom, on-chain analyst James Check suggests that a real market bottom may not materialize until Bitcoin goes through a genuine capitulation event.

Check identifies the $65,000 mark as the “true market mean,” which he defines as the average cost basis for active investors. When Bitcoin nears this level, Check believes many investors will start to feel the pressure from unrealized losses. Even long-term holders, including those who have been invested for five years, could find themselves at a loss. This price point closely mirrors Michael Saylor’s strategy, which is based on a cost basis around $67,500.

Where to Find Support After Capitulation

While Check expects Bitcoin to face declines from the $65,000 area, he sees strong long-term support forming in the $49,000-$50,000 range. This range corresponds with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, as well as the point at which Bitcoin reached a $1 trillion market cap. Check notes that a further drop to $40,000 would be unlikely unless there is a global recession.

Check also noted the “chopsolidation” phase in 2024, when Bitcoin traded within a wide range of $50K-$70K for an extended period. He believes this consolidation laid a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s support levels moving forward.