Standard Chartered Scraps Optimistic Bitcoin Price Forecast

Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered has sharply revised his Bitcoin outlook, describing current market conditions as a “cold breeze” rather than a full-blown “crypto winter.” In a research note released Tuesday, the bank’s global head of digital assets lowered his year-end BTC forecast to $100,000 and pushed back the previously projected $500,000 target from 2028 to 2030.

“Recent price action in bitcoin has been challenging, to say the least,” Kendrick wrote in the report, titled ‘Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze.’

A key driver of the downgrade is the collapse in valuations of bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Kendrick’s prior bullish thesis relied on sustained BTC accumulation by these firms. However, with many trading below the value of the bitcoin on their balance sheets, their ability to raise additional capital for purchases has been severely limited.

“We expect consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” Kendrick noted.

With DATs largely sidelined, the bull case for bitcoin now rests predominantly on ETF inflows. Reflecting this shift, Kendrick revised his price projections as follows:

2025: $100,000 (previously $200,000)
2026: $150,000 (previously $300,000)
2027: $225,000 (previously $400,000)
2028: $300,000 (previously $500,000)

The milestone $500,000 target is now expected no earlier than 2030.

Despite the more cautious outlook, Kendrick highlighted that institutional adoption remains a long-term driver. Investment committees and large allocators often move slowly, but over time, these channels could generate the next significant wave of demand for bitcoin.