Ripple Secures MiCA Approval, but Hawkish Fed Keeps XRP Stuck Near $1.10

In the latest XRP market update, XRP is trading around $1.07, down 0.57% over the past 24 hours, as the token continues to struggle against the $1.10 resistance level that has blocked three straight recovery attempts.

The price action appears relatively stable at first glance, but the underlying macroeconomic and on-chain factors reveal a more complex picture. The next major move will depend on whether XRP can break out of this range or faces another rejection as market conditions continue to shift.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments after the meeting—highlighting the Fed’s commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target—strengthened the broader risk-off sentiment across financial markets.

Despite the pressure from macro conditions, Santiment data shows that mid-sized XRP holders are increasing their exposure. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 XRP now control 11.9% of total supply, up from 11.64% on July 1, while the 100,000 to 1 million XRP group also increased its share to 11.75% during the same period.

Ripple also achieved a major regulatory milestone this week by receiving full MiCA Crypto-Asset Service Provider authorization in Europe, potentially opening the door for greater institutional XRP payment activity across the region. Meanwhile, XRP perpetual futures open interest remains elevated at 2.27 billion XRP, slightly below this week’s high of 2.29 billion.

The combination of a hawkish Federal Reserve, technical resistance near current levels, and a significant regulatory breakthrough creates a critical turning point for XRP.

XRP Price Outlook: Can XRP Push Above $1.10 This Week?

XRP is currently trading at $1.07, sitting below the Bollinger Band middle line near $1.10 and beneath all major exponential moving averages.

The 50-day EMA at $1.13 aligns closely with the upper Bollinger Band near $1.14, forming a strong resistance zone that has rejected previous intraday rallies. Meanwhile, the 100-day EMA at $1.21 and the 200-day EMA at $1.41 suggest that the broader trend remains under pressure. These higher levels will only become relevant if short-term momentum improves.

Momentum indicators remain cautious. The daily RSI is near 45, sitting in neutral territory but showing signs of weakness. The MACD remains slightly negative, suggesting previous bullish momentum is fading rather than new buying strength emerging. Lower trading volume and open interest compared with recent highs also reduce the likelihood of an immediate breakout.

The $1.00 level remains the key support zone for traders. A daily close below this mark would weaken the current recovery outlook and suggest sellers are regaining control.

A successful MiCA-driven institutional boost, rising open interest above 2.29 billion XRP, and a high-volume breakout above $1.10 could open the path toward $1.13–$1.14.

However, continued consolidation between $1.05 and $1.15 remains the more likely short-term scenario as traders await ETF-related developments and potential exchange listing catalysts. A break below $1.00 would indicate stronger distribution pressure and could diminish the significance of recent accumulation among mid-tier XRP holders.