Predictions of a 300% XRP surge in 2026 are back in circulation, implying an $8 upside target.

Standard Chartered has reiterated one of the most bullish institutional forecasts for XRP, projecting the token could climb to $8 by the end of 2026 as regulatory conditions in the U.S. improve and institutional participation deepens. The call, first outlined in an April research note, implies roughly 330% upside from current prices.

Price action, however, remains restrained. XRP slipped to $1.87 even as trading activity accelerated, leaving the token pinned near the $1.85 support zone. The combination of rising volume and limited price movement points to positioning rather than panic, a setup that often precedes a larger directional move.

According to Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, clearer U.S. regulatory guidance has reduced the legal uncertainty that weighed on XRP through much of the prior cycle. That shift has lowered the barrier for institutional exposure and allowed Ripple and the surrounding ecosystem to build without constant litigation risk.

Institutional demand has begun to show up in market flows. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs have drawn about $1.25 billion in net inflows since their November debut, reflecting steadier allocation patterns than the more stop-start flows seen in bitcoin and ether ETFs. At the same time, XRP balances held on exchanges have fallen toward multi-year lows, a trend traders often interpret as a shrinking pool of immediately available supply. While that alone does not guarantee price appreciation, it can amplify moves if demand remains firm.

From a technical standpoint, XRP declined 0.79% on the session while volume ran roughly 20.8% above weekly averages — a divergence that typically signals rotation or distribution rather than clean accumulation. The most active trading window occurred around 14:00, when approximately 57.2 million tokens changed hands as price failed to extend beyond $1.8792, underscoring that sellers continue to lean into rallies.

The $1.85 level remains critical. Price tested and held the area, but the broader structure remains heavy, with moving averages stacked bearishly and sloping lower. That configuration continues to cap upside attempts and keeps short-term momentum biased toward selling into strength.

Derivatives data complicates the picture. Open interest rose to $3.43 billion even as spot netflows turned negative by around $10.7 million, suggesting leverage is building without corresponding spot demand. This mix can compress price ranges in the near term but also increases the risk of sharp moves if positions are forced to unwind.

A key near-term catalyst is January’s scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from escrow. Even if a significant portion is ultimately re-escrowed, the event tends to heighten sensitivity around supply and liquidity — particularly with price sitting on a major technical shelf.

For now, XRP remains in a support-defense phase with overhead supply. If the $1.85 level continues to hold and price can reclaim the $1.88–$1.89 zone, the next area of resistance sits near $1.92–$1.93, where sellers have repeatedly emerged. A close above that range would improve the short-term tone and open room toward $2.00 and the downtrend line near $2.08.

On the downside, a decisive break below $1.85 would likely shift focus to the next demand area around $1.77, with deeper support near $1.60–$1.55. In the near term, rising volume alongside muted price movement suggests traders are positioning ahead of the January escrow unlock rather than committing to a clear directional view — but the ongoing compression around $1.85 increases the odds that the eventual move will be sharp rather than gradual.

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