Polymarket Accurately Predicts 90% of World Events, Study Reveals

Study Confirms Polymarket’s 90% Accuracy in Predicting Global Events

Polymarket has proven to be a powerful forecasting tool, with a 90% accuracy rate for predicting events one month in advance, climbing to 94% just hours before an event unfolds, according to new research.

The findings, compiled by New York-based data scientist Alex McCullough on a Dune dashboard, highlight Polymarket’s reliability in forecasting real-world outcomes. To ensure a fair assessment, McCullough excluded markets where probabilities had already settled above 90% or below 10% before final resolution, preventing inflated accuracy rates.

Why Polymarket’s Forecasts Hold Up

While Polymarket is highly accurate, McCullough found that the platform slightly overestimates probabilities in most cases. This could stem from trader biases, including herd mentality, high-risk preference, and the influence of low liquidity markets, which sometimes lead to overconfident predictions.

Long-term markets tend to appear more accurate because they include many outcomes that are obviously unlikely, making them easier to predict. As an example, McCullough pointed to a past Polymarket bet on Gavin Newsom becoming U.S. president, a market with $54 million in trading volume. Since Newsom was never a serious contender, the market’s correct prediction of his loss artificially inflated Polymarket’s accuracy in long-term forecasting.

Short-Term Markets and the Rise of Sports Betting

Shorter-term markets, such as sports betting, offer a clearer test of Polymarket’s predictive capabilities. Unlike political bets, where long-shot candidates can skew probabilities, sports matchups provide a more balanced playing field for accuracy measurement. McCullough’s research found that Polymarket’s accuracy improves significantly as events approach, with notable precision spikes in the final hours before resolution.

Sports betting is one of Polymarket’s fastest-growing sectors, with over $4.5 billion in wagers placed across major sporting events like the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League, according to Polymarket Analytics.

Political Forecasting: Polymarket vs. Traditional Polls

McCullough’s findings could have political implications, particularly in Canada, where Polymarket currently predicts a stronger lead for new Liberal Party leader Mark Carney over Conservative Pierre Poilievre. Interestingly, Polymarket’s forecast shows an even larger gap than traditional polling data, raising questions about whether betting markets may offer more accurate insights into political trends.