Market Recovery May Come Late: Analyst Points to Post-Summer Turnaround

Bitcoin’s widening disconnect from tech stocks is raising concerns as AI spending continues to accelerate, according to Quinn Thompson.

Quinn Thompson, CIO at Lekker Capital, says Bitcoin is still showing warning signals, and his fund remains bearish on crypto heading into the summer months.

He points to a mix of structural headwinds, including ongoing digital asset treasury (DAT) challenges, uncertainty surrounding Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, and persistent concerns that future quantum computing advances could threaten Bitcoin’s security model.

Combined with weaker liquidity conditions and ongoing selling pressure, these factors have helped create one of the largest divergences in recent history between Bitcoin and technology equities, with crypto lagging even as the broader tech sector remains strong.

Thompson also warns that a wave of major IPOs—including SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI—could absorb substantial amounts of investor capital, potentially draining liquidity from other parts of the market.

He highlights the underperformance of the Magnificent Seven versus the broader Nasdaq as an important signal. In healthy bull markets, leadership is typically driven by the largest companies, but he notes that recent gains have instead been led by semiconductor and AI supply-chain stocks rather than the hyperscalers that initially powered the rally.

According to Thompson, those hyperscalers are increasingly pressured by heavy AI-related capital spending, which is weighing on free cash flow, increasing leverage, and limiting share buybacks.

At the same time, reducing investment could weaken the semiconductor and AI infrastructure trade that has supported broader tech-market strength.

He concludes that rising IPO supply will compete more directly for investor capital and attention, creating a more difficult environment ahead for both AI leaders and the broader market.