Market Pushes Back Fed Rate-Cut Expectations as Employment Data Lags

Fed Rate-Cut Bets Collapse as Jobs Data Delays Shake Markets

Expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut have plunged after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release October jobs data, with the November report delayed until after the Fed’s final 2025 meeting.

CME traders now assign only a 33% chance to a year-end rate cut, down sharply from 50% just a day earlier. Less than a month ago, markets priced in near certainty for a December move. The rapid shift follows Chairman Jerome Powell’s late-October comments, which dampened hopes for additional easing, and subsequent speeches that revealed deep divisions within the central bank over policy.

Crypto markets have felt the impact. Bitcoin has slid from $110,000 ahead of Powell’s remarks to roughly $89,000, while crypto-related equities have faced even sharper declines. Circle (CRCL) has dropped 10% Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month, and Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) is down roughly 10% today and almost 40% since late October.

The Fed now faces its December meeting without timely employment data, a key input historically used to guide policy decisions. Without fresh numbers indicating a slowdown in the labor market, hawkish members are unlikely to shift in favor of another cut this year.

Former President Donald Trump added fuel to market noise, stating at an investment forum that he would have fired Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging him to remain until 2026.

Investors will receive one final labor report before the Fed convenes—the September jobs number, due Thursday. Given its age, it is unlikely to materially influence the central bank’s policy decisions, leaving markets to navigate uncertainty with limited guidance.

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