JPMorgan Forecasts 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns, Outpacing Stocks, Bonds and Gold

JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin to outperform U.S. stocks, bonds and gold over the next decade, projecting annualized returns of 10% in its base-case scenario.

In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published Tuesday, the asset management division outlined three potential outcomes for Bitcoin: a base-case annualized return of 10%, a bearish scenario of -9.7% and a bullish scenario of 17%.

These projections exceed the bank’s expected returns for traditional assets. JPMorgan forecasts annual growth of 5.6% to 6.6% for U.S. bonds, 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 7.7% for small-cap equities and 5.5% for gold.

The report is the first time JPMorgan has provided a specific range of projected Bitcoin returns in its research.

The New York-based bank has maintained a complicated relationship with cryptocurrency, shaped in part by CEO Jamie Dimon’s longstanding skepticism toward Bitcoin. Dimon famously called the leading cryptocurrency a “fraud” in 2017, and although his language has softened somewhat in recent years, he has continued to express reservations about the asset.

Despite its relatively optimistic return forecast, JPMorgan Asset Management remained cautious about Bitcoin’s place in investment portfolios. The report said the cryptocurrency’s high volatility and inconsistent correlations with other asset classes continue to hinder its broader adoption among investors.

The firm also stopped short of presenting Bitcoin as an effective portfolio diversifier. Instead, portfolio manager Dr. Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo described it as a speculative investment and a potential hedge against monetary easing.

Bitcoin has little strategic purpose in portfolios beyond serving as a bet on the expansion of fiat currencies or the future growth of asset trading on blockchain networks, the executives said.

They added that Bitcoin generally behaves like a high-beta risk asset, tracking growth in the global money supply, although investors sometimes view it as “digital gold.” Its shifting relationships with other assets complicate portfolio modeling, while forecasting its value remains difficult because it lacks traditional cash-flow fundamentals. Adoption rates, regulation and liquidity may influence its performance as much as technological developments.

Update (Oct. 20, 13:15 UTC): The report’s attribution has been clarified to specify that it was published by JPMorgan Asset Management.