Holiday Gains Shrink for Bitcoin Holders Amid Lower Yearly Prices

Bitcoin Heads into Thanksgiving Amid Ongoing Downtrend

Bitcoin BTC enters the Thanksgiving period following a 35% correction from its October all-time high and is heading into its fifth consecutive down week. Historically, the day before Thanksgiving is weak for Bitcoin, with six of the last seven pre-holiday sessions finishing lower. In 2020 and 2021, BTC declined around 8%, likely due to reduced liquidity and limited hedging ahead of the holiday.

Thanksgiving itself tends to be relatively flat. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 1.5% gain on the holiday, posting negative returns only four times. The day after Thanksgiving is typically stronger, with average gains of over 2.3%. On a weekly basis, Thanksgiving usually falls in week 47, historically returning around 3%, though late-week 46 has been stronger, averaging over 6%.

While the fourth quarter is traditionally Bitcoin’s most bullish period, with average gains near 77%, Q4 2025 is down 23%, and November alone has fallen over 20%, the worst monthly performance since June 2022. BTC remains in a seven-week decline from its October high of $126,000, with week 47 performance slightly negative. Options expiry may increase short-term volatility as the month closes.

Bitcoin appears set to finish 2025 Thanksgiving below the 2024 level of $95,380, a scenario seen in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Unlike previous years, institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin treasuries have reshaped the market, leaving retail traders more exposed. October saw record liquidations exceeding $19 billion on retail-focused venues, highlighting the risks for individual investors. With liquidity on crypto exchanges now thin, regulated venues dominate, leaving retail traders to navigate a fundamentally changed market.