Hash Ribbon shows signs of a bitcoin price recovery as miners curb unprofitable production

U.S. storm slows bitcoin mining, reviving bullish Hash Ribbon signal

A weekend storm in the U.S. disrupted bitcoin (BTC $89,322.67) mining, driving up operational costs and forcing miners to reduce computing power, or hashrate. The slowdown has brought renewed focus to the Hash Ribbon indicator, a historically bullish on-chain signal that often marks long-term buying opportunities during periods of miner capitulation.

The Hash Ribbon tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of bitcoin’s hashrate on Glassnode. Miner capitulation is signaled when the short-term average drops below the long-term average, shown in light red. The capitulation phase ends once the 30-day average crosses back above the 60-day, represented by dark red. Historically, when this recovery aligns with a shift in price momentum from negative to positive (dark red to white), it has coincided with major BTC rallies.

The storm caused the network hashrate to fall roughly 20%, from about 1.2 zettahash per second (ZH/s) to roughly 950 exahashes per second (EH/s). This decline is expected to trigger a difficulty adjustment of about 17%, the largest since July 2021, when China banned bitcoin mining.

The Hash Ribbon last indicated capitulation in late November, when bitcoin bottomed near $80,000. Today, BTC trades around $88,000. Similar patterns have preceded significant rallies: in mid-2024, bitcoin bottomed near $49,000 after a Hash Ribbon capitulation before rising to $100,000 by January 2025. During the 2022 FTX collapse, BTC fell to about $15,000 amid miner capitulation before rebounding to roughly $22,000 once the metric normalized.

Traders are now watching to see whether history repeats. If hashrate recovers and the Hash Ribbon normalizes, bitcoin could enter a renewed expansionary phase, offering potential long-term buying opportunities.

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