Factoring in Debt, MARA Commands a Premium, Not a Discount, According to VanEck’s Sigel

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel warns that MARA Holdings (MARA) may seem undervalued, but its capital structure and leverage suggest otherwise.

Both Strategy (MSTR) and MARA—the two largest publicly traded bitcoin holders—have fallen about 40% over the past six weeks. While much attention has focused on MSTR, MARA—down 55% year over year—has drawn investor interest as a perceived bargain.

Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, argues that perception is misleading. MARA holds $4.9 billion in bitcoin but has $3.3 billion in convertible debt, leaving roughly $1.6 billion in net bitcoin value before considering other mining liabilities. With a $4.7 billion equity market cap, Sigel says MARA is effectively trading at a premium to its bitcoin holdings, not at a discount.

MARA’s short interest, currently 27%, falls to around 15% after adjusting for delta hedging related to convertible notes—a 44% reduction. By comparison, MSTR has $8 billion in convertible debt against a $53 billion market cap, with adjusted short interest declining by only 31%. Sigel describes MARA’s short interest as structural, while MSTR’s reflects fundamentals.

He adds that over half of MARA’s equity volatility stems from its financing structure rather than bitcoin price movements. Sigel concludes that MSTR offers cleaner bitcoin exposure, while MARA’s performance is largely influenced by its complex and leveraged capital structure.