Entering 2026, Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom is betting heavily—near its maximum risk—on altcoins

Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Enters 2026 at “Near Maximum Risk,” Targets Altcoins and Privacy Tokens

Arthur Hayes’ investment fund, Maelstrom, is starting 2026 with what the crypto veteran describes as “almost maximum risk” positioning, continuing the aggressive approach it adopted in the latter half of 2025 while keeping minimal stablecoin exposure.

In a Tuesday essay, Hayes outlined that Maelstrom remains deeply invested in risk assets, with a particular emphasis on privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC) and emerging DeFi tokens, which now dominate the portfolio. “While spare cash from financing trades will continue to flow into Bitcoin, our stablecoin holdings are very low,” he noted.

The move marks a sharp contrast to Maelstrom’s stance earlier in 2025, when Hayes warned Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 amid a “mini financial crisis” before quantitative easing resumed. After reducing risk and raising fiat in January, the fund shifted back to aggressive crypto exposure by April, going “maximum long” after Bitcoin briefly dipped below $85,000 due to tariff concerns.

By mid-2025, Maelstrom was positioning for what Hayes called a new altcoin cycle, a conviction that only strengthened through the rest of the year as the fund added privacy coin positions at perceived bargain prices. By December, Hayes signaled that it was “time to go shopping”, anticipating rate cuts and Fed liquidity expansion.

Hayes, widely regarded as one of crypto’s top macro commentators, is betting that rising U.S. GDP, federal deficit spending, and continued Fed liquidity injections will support crypto prices broadly, with higher-risk tokens expected to benefit the most. He also cited geopolitical factors, such as U.S. involvement in Venezuela, as part of a macro backdrop fueling this liquidity wave.

Reflecting on 2025, Hayes said Maelstrom’s performance was profitable but uneven, with strong gains from Bitcoin, HYPE, and PENDLE offset by losses in tokens like PUMP. Looking ahead, the fund plans to concentrate on credible narratives supported by the macro liquidity environment.

The strategy coincides with Maelstrom’s strategic investment in River, a stablecoin and chain abstraction startup, though financial terms were not disclosed.