Despite recent sharp drops in Bitcoin’s price, JPMorgan is sticking to its volatility-adjusted BTC-to-gold model, targeting a theoretical price of around $170,000 over the next six to twelve months.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $91,200.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) remains a key market driver, with analysts closely monitoring its enterprise-value-to-bitcoin-holdings ratio (mNAV), currently at 1.13. According to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, this ratio is a critical measure of forced-selling risk if it falls below 1.0, though the company’s mNAV currently stays above that level.
The firm’s $1.4 billion cash reserve provides a cushion against the need to sell Bitcoin, while the upcoming MSCI index review on January 15 could act as an asymmetric catalyst. Analysts note that exclusion is largely priced in after MicroStrategy’s shares tumbled since October 10, but a favorable result could trigger a strong rebound.
Founded by Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet. The company has faced scrutiny as Bitcoin slid from an all-time high above $120,000 to around $82,000.
JPMorgan linked part of the recent decline to renewed mining pressure in China and high-cost miners exiting elsewhere, some selling Bitcoin amid elevated energy costs. The bank has revised its Bitcoin production cost estimate to $90,000 from $94,000, reflecting declines in network hash rate and mining difficulty.
A lower hash rate, which measures total mining power on the network, can reinforce price declines as marginal miners exit, reducing difficulty and production costs—similar to patterns seen in 2018, JPMorgan analysts noted.
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