Bitwise Sees Bitcoin Reaching New Highs in 2026 Amid Institutional Growth
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts bitcoin (BTC$88,100.66) could hit record highs in 2026, as lower volatility and weaker correlations with equities reshape how institutions view the asset.
According to Bitwise, next year could mark a new phase for bitcoin, with the asset maturing just as institutional participation ramps up. The firm highlighted that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is weakening—halvings are less impactful, interest rates are expected to decline, and leverage has been constrained following major liquidations in late 2025.
“The forces that previously drove four-year cycles—the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and leverage-fueled booms and busts—are significantly weaker than in past cycles,” Hougan wrote in a Monday blog post. Traditionally, halvings reduce miner rewards by 50%, slowing bitcoin’s supply growth.
Hougan cited spot ETF inflows and easier access via major brokerages as key drivers that could push bitcoin to new highs rather than a post-halving drop. He also noted that bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia (NVDA) in 2025, with price swings trending lower over the past decade as ETFs broaden ownership.
Looking ahead, Hougan expects bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities to decrease, with performance increasingly driven by crypto-specific catalysts, regulation, adoption, and product innovation. Bitwise says these trends could make 2026 a breakout year for bitcoin as a portfolio asset, potentially drawing tens of billions in new institutional capital.
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