Citigroup assigns $143,000 base case target for bitcoin

Citigroup has set a 12-month “base case” price target for bitcoin at $143,000, representing roughly 62% upside from current levels near $88,000, citing potential ETF inflows and continued strength in traditional equity markets.

“Bitcoin is likely to range between $80,000 and $90,000 into the new year, supported by growing adoption and possible U.S. digital-asset legislation in the second quarter,” analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo wrote in a joint report. They highlighted $70,000 as key support, a level roughly matching bitcoin’s price ahead of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.

The base case assumes renewed ETF demand and positive stock market performance. Regulatory catalysts—especially the anticipated passage and signing of the Clarity Act, which has already cleared the House—are expected to further boost adoption and fund flows.

Citi also outlined a bear case at $78,500, more than 10% below current levels, triggered by a potential global recession. The bull case sees bitcoin rising to $189,000, more than doubling from present prices, driven by heightened end-investor demand.

The report underscores that while bitcoin remains volatile, key drivers such as regulation, ETF activity, and equity markets could create substantial upside over the next year.