Buying Bitcoin Below 200-Week Average Has Historically Delivered 100%+ Median Gains: Kraken

Bitcoin briefly dipped below its 200-week moving average twice over the past two weeks, a rare occurrence that Kraken says has historically signaled attractive entry points for buyers.

Bitcoin (BTC), trading around $62,708, has recently been testing a level that has often preceded strong upside moves, according to Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, who shared the analysis with CoinDesk.

That level is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which tracks Bitcoin’s average price over a long time horizon and helps smooth out short-term volatility to reveal the broader trend.

Over the past two weeks, BTC briefly fell below this level twice before recovering above it by the weekly close. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is around $63,900, slightly above the 200-week SMA of $62,358.

Perfumo noted that sustained closes below this indicator are uncommon, occurring on roughly 10% of trading days since mid-2017, and have historically coincided with periods of strong long-term value for buyers.

According to him, “buyers at this level have historically seen median returns of over 113% after one year and about 313% over two years.”

He clarified that the median reflects the midpoint of all outcomes, meaning half of those instances produced higher returns while half were lower—making it a more reliable measure than an average, which can be skewed by extreme gains.

The historical data also suggests relatively low downside pain for long-term holders.

Perfumo added that investors who accumulated below the 200-week MA typically reached break-even within just two days on a median basis, while experiencing a maximum drawdown of only about 9% over the following year.

However, he emphasized caution, noting that past performance does not guarantee future results, even though historical patterns suggest Bitcoin has often offered strong value at these levels.