Bitcoin’s Supply Shift Accelerates as Long-Term Holders Hand Coins to New Buyers

Here’s a rewritten version with a smoother market-analysis style:

Long-term Bitcoin holders are gradually shifting supply into the hands of newer market participants, but potential Federal Reserve rate increases remain a key risk that could still trigger the major selloff some investors are anticipating.

Bitcoin is currently trading about 50% below its October 2025 record high of nearly $124,000. With the price hovering around $62,000, the market has spent roughly five months moving sideways within a $60,000–$80,000 range, creating a sense of investor fatigue and reduced volatility.

However, a closely monitored on-chain indicator suggests this period of inactivity could be laying the groundwork for a larger market move.

Glassnode’s RHODL Ratio, which tracks the relative wealth held by long-term holders compared with newer investors, climbed to 6.5 in early July—its second-highest level ever recorded. The metric has since declined and now sits below 6. Importantly, this shift is happening during a period of price stability rather than a sharp market downturn.

The current environment differs from 2022, when the RHODL Ratio decline coincided with a major selloff following the collapse of FTX, which pushed Bitcoin toward $15,000. In contrast, Bitcoin in 2026 has remained near the $60,000 level while ownership is changing hands without signs of widespread panic.

The data points to a gradual redistribution of Bitcoin supply, with long-term holders—many of whom accumulated during 2023 and 2024—selling portions of their holdings to a newer group of investors who view current prices as an attractive entry point.

The movement could also reflect a distribution phase under the Wyckoff market cycle model, where experienced investors gradually reduce positions by selling into strong demand. Historically, this phase can appear before either a deeper bear market decline or a transition into a new accumulation period.

Previous extended consolidation periods near Bitcoin’s 2015, 2019, and 2023 market lows eventually preceded significant recoveries. In each instance, the RHODL Ratio compressed before Bitcoin moved into a stronger upward trend.

The current cycle has now experienced five months of range-bound trading without the sharp capitulation event many traders continue to expect.

A potential Federal Reserve rate hike remains one of the biggest downside risks. Markets are currently pricing in around 50 basis points of additional tightening over the next six months, which could create fresh pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.