Bitcoin Struggles Under $65K as Hormuz Hopes Fade, XRP Nears $1 Break

The brief rally sparked by hopes of a resolution over the Strait of Hormuz has faded after President Donald Trump demanded 50 years of compensation from Iran. Brent crude climbed back toward $89, leaving cryptocurrency and equity markets largely subdued ahead of Wednesday’s closely watched U.S. CPI report.

Crypto prices were mostly unchanged Tuesday after weakening overnight as optimism over a potential Hormuz agreement quickly disappeared.

Trump’s demand for decades of compensation from Iran as a condition for negotiations reduced expectations of a quick diplomatic breakthrough. Brent crude rose to $89.08, putting it more than 12% above last week’s low.

Bitcoin was up 0.26% from midnight UTC but remained 1.68% lower over the previous 24 hours. Ether was performing better than BTC on the day’s UTC session but was still down 2.4% over 24 hours. Traditional markets were similarly quiet, with U.S. stock futures little changed as investors waited for Wednesday’s CPI release, viewed as the week’s most important market catalyst.

Bitcoin also faced additional supply pressure after Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC on Monday. It was the company’s fourth consecutive weekly reduction, and Strategy has not purchased bitcoin since June.

Derivatives Market

Futures activity jumps: Crypto futures trading volume increased 51% over 24 hours to $143.15 billion, while aggregate open interest remained near $115.6 billion. The combination suggests increased turnover rather than a significant buildup of new positions.

Long-short balance returns: The taker long-to-short volume ratio moved back toward neutral, with buyers and sellers each accounting for roughly half of market-order activity. That compares with a more bullish positioning a day earlier. Takers are traders who execute against existing liquidity in an order book.

XRP sees the biggest OI increase: XRP recorded the largest rise in open interest, with outstanding futures contracts increasing 14% to 2.72 billion tokens, the highest level since October. The token is approaching a potential break below $1, a level it has not traded beneath since 2024.

XRP’s negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta indicates that aggressive sell orders are outweighing buying activity. Short sellers appear to be using market orders more heavily than buyers, although funding rates remain slightly positive, providing a modest bullish signal.

Other OI changes: LINK, ETH and HBAR also recorded increases in open interest, while CC, ZEC and AVAX posted the largest declines.

Sellers dominate: Negative 24-hour CVD readings across most major tokens, including bitcoin, indicate that bearish trading pressure remains widespread. LINK and TRX were among the exceptions.

Funding rates split: Monero’s funding rate stood at an annualized 39%, the highest bullish reading among major tokens. CC recorded a -14% rate, indicating the strongest bearish positioning.

Bitcoin volatility rises: Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, BVIV, moved above its long-standing floor near 36%, climbing almost 5% to 38.64% as BTC fell back below $64,000. A continued rise in the index could be significant because implied volatility has historically tended to move inversely to Bitcoin’s spot price.

Options skew weakens: One-week call skew for Bitcoin and ether options listed on Deribit weakened and could turn negative. Such a shift would point to increasing downside protection if Wednesday’s CPI figures exceed expectations and strengthen the case for interest rates remaining elevated for longer.

Short-term volatility remains low: Despite the rise in spot volatility, one-week implied volatility derived from BTC and ETH options remains relatively compressed, suggesting traders are not yet pricing in significant stress around the CPI release.

Call options attract volume: The most active options by 24-hour volume included the BTC $70,000 call expiring Sept. 25 and the ETH $2,000 call with the same expiration date, indicating continued interest in upside exposure.

Token Movers

Curve DAO’s CRV was among the strongest performers, gaining 9.49% over 24 hours and extending its seven-day advance to 27.29%. The token has emerged as one of the better-performing assets in the DeFi sector despite the broader market weakness.

Lighter’s LIT token continued its recovery, climbing 6.40% over 24 hours and 2.26% since midnight to around $2.43. It is now nearly 20% higher over the week as the decentralized derivatives project rebounds from its July decline.

Chainlink’s LINK gained 2.59% since midnight and is up 4.40% over the past week. The move comes as interest in oracle infrastructure increases alongside growing attention on tokenized real-world assets.

Zcash’s ZEC was the biggest decliner among the highlighted tokens, falling 1.97% since midnight to about $486 after giving back some of its recent gains. Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies were broadly weaker, with Monero also declining 0.72%.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season indicator recovered slightly from Monday’s reading of 37 out of 100, reaching 41 as investors appeared to move into tokens that had become technically oversold.

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