Bitcoin Slump in 2026 and Rally in 2028: How JPMorgan’s IBIT Note Tracks Halving Patterns

JPMorgan Introduces IBIT-Linked Structured Note Tied to Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle

JPMorgan Chase has launched a structured note linked to BlackRock’s IBIT, designed to align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. The product targets investors who anticipate BTC’s historical pattern of post-halving dips followed by rallies.

Filed with regulators this week, the note offers investors the potential for uncapped returns if BTC remains below a certain level in 2026 but rallies by the end of 2028. Historically, Bitcoin enters a bear phase roughly two years after a halving, followed by a bull run during the next halving cycle. With the most recent halving in 2024, BTC is projected to decline in 2026 and rebound in 2028.

Here’s how it works: if the IBIT ETF reaches JPMorgan’s preset price by the end of 2026, investors receive a guaranteed 16% return. If IBIT remains below that threshold, the note stays active until 2028, offering exposure to potentially amplified gains. Should IBIT surpass JPMorgan’s 2028 target, investors could earn 1.5 times their initial investment with no upper limit, allowing for substantial upside if BTC surges.

The note also includes downside protection: investors can recover their principal in 2028 as long as IBIT does not fall more than 30%. Beyond that, losses scale directly with the decline. JPMorgan cautions that in extreme scenarios, investors could lose more than 40% or all of their principal.

This structured note provides a strategic avenue for institutional and sophisticated investors to position for Bitcoin’s halving-driven cycles while balancing upside potential and downside risk.