Bitcoin is showing many of the warning signs typically associated with the end of major selloffs, but historical data suggests investors may need to wait before expecting a meaningful recovery, according to VanEck.
Eight of the 12 capitulation indicators monitored by the asset manager are currently flashing, while all 12 entered their respective warning zones at some point during the past three months, according to VanEck’s mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck.
The indicators track extreme market conditions that tend to emerge during heavy selling, including Bitcoin’s decline from its record high, miner profitability and the proportion of holders sitting on unrealized losses.
However, historical performance following similar readings has been relatively weak. When eight to 12 indicators were active in the past, Bitcoin generated average returns of 12.8% over the next 90 days and 32% over six months. Those figures trail Bitcoin’s long-term averages of 15.2% and 36.3%, respectively. The historical advantage only became apparent over a 12-month period.
Most of VanEck’s signals are triggered when a metric falls into the lowest 15% of its historical range. The drawdown indicator is the exception, activating once Bitcoin falls more than 35% from its peak.
Bitcoin’s current 49% decline would place it around the 35th percentile historically, meaning it would not technically trigger the drawdown signal under the percentile methodology. VanEck noted that this would leave seven of the 12 indicators active rather than eight.
Earlier Bitcoin bear-market bottoms featured far steeper declines of 94%, 85%, 84% and 78%. Those cycles also unfolded without the support of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, involved fewer institutional investors and included major crypto failures such as Celsius and FTX.
Bitcoin was trading near $64,300 during Asian evening hours Wednesday, approximately 49% below its all-time high. Thirty-day realized volatility had fallen to 27.2% annualized, well below its long-term average of roughly 80%. The cryptocurrency has remained between about $62,300 and $66,500 since recovering from a June 30 low near $58,500.
The timing also resembles previous bear-market cycles. VanEck identified four completed Bitcoin cycles since 2011, with declines from peak to trough lasting an average of 11 months, or 12.7 months when the smaller 2011 cycle is excluded.
Bitcoin entered the 10th month of its decline from the October 2025 peak in August. Based on previous cycles, VanEck expects the next accumulation phase to occur sometime between September and November, though the firm did not specify a particular date.
Miners are facing some of the greatest pressure. Network-wide daily mining revenue has fallen 46% from a year earlier, while mining difficulty has dropped 18.3% from its November 2025 peak as unprofitable operations shut down. The decline represents the steepest difficulty reduction since China’s 2021 mining crackdown.
Capital flows into investment products have provided some support. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products, including VanEck’s HODL ETF, attracted roughly $663 million over the previous 30 days. That reversed about $2.4 billion in outflows recorded during the prior month.
Trading activity remains subdued, however. Thirty-day spot Bitcoin volume has fallen 27% and now sits around the 10th percentile of its historical range.
The historical data suggests investors acting on these capitulation signals should be prepared to hold for roughly a year rather than expecting significant gains within a few months. While the indicators offer little predictive advantage over a three- or six-month period, VanEck said they can still help investors gauge Bitcoin’s position within its broader market cycle.
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