Bitcoin Set to Break Decade-Long September Trend as Gains Accelerate

Bitcoin is approaching its third consecutive monthly advance, but rising bond yields, higher oil prices and two major events in November could challenge the cryptocurrency’s momentum heading into the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin has gained about 7% in September after climbing 25% in August. Since 2013, every month that followed a positive August had ended lower in September. With only two calendar days left in the month, a positive September close would break that decade-long pattern and give bitcoin three straight monthly gains from July through September.

Such a finish would also push bitcoin’s third-quarter gain above 40%, marking its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.

Q4 Brings a Tougher Macro Backdrop

The fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest period, with CoinGlass data showing an average gain of roughly 77%.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $84,000, but broader market conditions remain unsettled. Government bond yields are climbing globally, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in the bond market, has moved above 100 and is nearing its highest levels of the year.

Oil prices remaining above $90 a barrel are adding to concerns about inflation. Gold also dropped about 3% on Monday, falling to just above $4,000 an ounce.

November Events Could Affect Liquidity

The fourth quarter will also bring two events that could influence liquidity and investor risk appetite.

Anthropic’s reported plans for a November IPO could attract significant investor attention and capital toward a major new stock-market offering. However, the timing and size of the potential listing have not yet been finalized.

The U.S. midterm elections in November could provide another source of market volatility as investors evaluate the potential policy implications and broader economic outlook.