Bitcoin Nears Long-Term Power Law Support Tracked by Fidelity Since 2015

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, describes the current range as an accumulation phase, though he notes there is still no clear catalyst to trigger a rebound.

Timmer explains that bitcoin is gradually moving toward the lower boundary of a long-term model he has followed for years.

This model is based on a power law framework, which maps bitcoin’s full price history on a logarithmic scale using three key bands: an upper resistance level, a central trendline, and a lower support line that has historically marked every major market bottom since 2015.

According to his latest analysis, that support level sits around $58,000, with bitcoin—currently near $62,700—edging closer to it.

The lower section of the model is where Timmer believes accumulation tends to occur. It measures how far bitcoin trades above or below the trendline, and the current deviation has dropped to about negative 56%. This level falls within what the model identifies as an accumulation zone, similar to the conditions seen during the 2018 and 2022 market lows. Meanwhile, the 52-week bitcoin-to-gold ratio has declined to roughly negative 100%, reinforcing the same signal.

Despite this, Timmer is not declaring a market bottom yet. He has pointed out that the speculative premium that previously pushed bitcoin above $120,000 has largely faded, global liquidity growth is slowing, and there is no immediate trigger for a reversal until liquidity conditions improve.

In his view, bitcoin could remain near this support range for an extended period rather than rebounding quickly.

He also notes that short-term capital has already rotated out—first moving from bitcoin into gold, and more recently from gold into semiconductor stocks, which are currently attracting the most investor interest.