Bitcoin Nears $64K as U.S. CPI Approaches, Harmony Exploit Hits Altcoins

Markets were largely subdued ahead of the July inflation data, with bitcoin holding steady near $64,000, oil trading close to $90 a barrel and Harmony dealing with a new exploit.

Crypto prices remained mostly flat on Wednesday as traders assessed the Harmony attack while awaiting the U.S. CPI report, a key indicator that often influences broader risk sentiment.

Harmony, a layer-1 blockchain designed for DeFi applications and marketplaces, said it had suffered an exploit during the early Asian trading session. The attacker reportedly created around 4 billion ONE tokens through empty blocks, equivalent to roughly 26% of the token’s circulating supply.

About 2.8 billion of those newly created tokens were rapidly transferred to exchanges, sending ONE down as much as 40% to a new record low.

Wider financial markets also showed little movement ahead of the July U.S. CPI release, scheduled for 12:30 UTC. Brent crude remained near $90 per barrel after renewed attacks by the Houthis on shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with a U.S. strike on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman, raised fresh concerns over oil supplies.

Bitcoin remained relatively unaffected by the developments, rising 0.23% since midnight UTC to trade around $63,900. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 38.

Derivatives Positioning

Futures markets appear stable, but taker sentiment turns bearish:
Although overall crypto futures activity has changed little, with both trading volume and open interest largely steady, positioning has begun to shift. The long-short ratio among takers has moved into bearish territory, with short positions making up 51.36% of activity. This marks a sharp reversal from the bullish positioning seen earlier in the week.

Avalanche faces heavier short selling as open interest rises:
AVAX has been among the weakest performers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past 24 hours, while its open interest has increased 6%. The combination of declining prices and rising OI reinforces the token’s current weakness. Its 24-hour cumulative volume delta is also the most negative among major assets, indicating that traders are aggressively opening short positions through market orders rather than passive limit orders.

Dogecoin leverage points to a possible volatility surge:
DOGE futures open interest has continued climbing, exceeding 17.2 billion tokens, its highest level since October. The increase from June’s low of 12 billion tokens has occurred while DOGE has remained near $0.07. Rising leverage alongside stagnant prices suggests the market could be preparing for a sharp move.

Major cryptocurrencies attract limited positioning:
Trading activity remains subdued in the two largest cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s open interest is staying below 750,000 BTC, with the lack of momentum continuing for several weeks. Ether is showing a similar pattern, suggesting both institutional and retail traders are taking a cautious approach to major assets.

Negative CVD signals selling pressure across altcoins:
Most of the 25 largest cryptocurrencies recorded negative 24-hour cumulative volume deltas. The broad weakness points to a bearish bias across the altcoin market, with Chainlink, Cronos and Tron standing out as the main exceptions.

Implied volatility stays muted before the CPI release:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, BVIV, has declined to 37.5% from Monday’s peak of 38.66%. One-week implied volatility is also subdued, indicating that options traders are not expecting a major market reaction to the U.S. inflation report. The calm pricing could mean traders are underestimating the potential impact of the data.

Options traders focus on $70,000 while preparing for a large move:
The $70,000 bitcoin call was once again the most actively traded contract on Deribit for a second straight day. At the same time, demand for BTC strangles has increased, with traders buying both puts and calls to position for a significant move in either direction.

Token Activity

CRV leads weekly gains:
Curve’s CRV has been the strongest performer of the week, gaining about 35% over seven days and trading near $0.28. The rally comes ahead of a planned 15% reduction in annual token emissions. CRV has also gained more than 3% since midnight UTC.

UNI falls sharply:
Uniswap’s UNI dropped more than 10% over the past 24 hours without an obvious catalyst. The decline highlights the vulnerability of altcoins to sharp price movements when liquidity and market depth remain limited.

Monero rebounds:
Monero’s XMR has climbed 5.8% since midnight UTC, fully recovering the losses recorded during Tuesday’s decline.

AI tokens regain some momentum:
AI-focused tokens NEAR, FET and TAO were also trading higher, gaining between 1.3% and 2.3%. The moves suggest optimism toward AI-related crypto projects is gradually returning after several months of weaker sentiment.

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