Bitcoin, Nasdaq Futures Fall as Oracle’s Results Spark AI Hype Worries

Oracle Earnings Weigh on Risk Assets Despite Fed Rate Cut

Risk assets came under pressure Thursday, even after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, as disappointing earnings from Oracle added to investor caution over AI-driven market optimism.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $90,000, down 2.8% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data, while Nasdaq futures, tracking the tech-heavy U.S. index, fell 0.8%.

Oracle reported fiscal Q2 2026 results Wednesday for the period ending Nov. 30, 2025. Total revenue slightly missed expectations, dragged down by weaker legacy software sales and disappointing new license bookings.

The results highlighted the widening gap between aggressive AI infrastructure investments, largely debt-funded, and slower-than-expected revenue inflows.

According to the Financial Times, Oracle’s earnings were overshadowed by a $15 billion planned increase in data center spending and a 25% rise in long-term debt to $99.6 billion from a year ago. Cloud infrastructure revenue came in at $4.1 billion, below analyst expectations. Morgan Stanley forecasts Oracle’s net debt could reach roughly $290 billion by 2028.

After-hours, Oracle shares dropped more than 10%, pulling down AI-focused stocks and adding downward pressure on crypto markets. The selloff also renewed attention on Oracle’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS), which reflect perceived default risk.

Oracle’s 5-year CDS surged to its highest level since 2022. The Special Situations newsletter noted: “Historically, ORCL CDS traded around 20–40 bps, so 117 bps represents a material repricing of risk, though it does not indicate distress.”

The newsletter added, “The current CDS pricing implies a 1.93% annual probability of default and a 9% cumulative five-year default risk.”