Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on whether improving macro conditions translate into lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. Comments from President Donald Trump on employment, inflation, and a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement have boosted risk sentiment, but the market still needs confirmation from broader economic indicators.
Jobless claims remain near historically low levels
U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 1,000 last week to 199,000, slightly below economists’ expectations of 202,000.
The four-week moving average declined to 198,750 from 203,250. Weekly claims around the 200,000 mark or below continue to signal a resilient labor market.
The key focus now shifts to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for July. Recent payroll data has been weaker than what weekly claims have suggested.
Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added 80,000 jobs in July, compared with 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
Warsh signals possible September rate hike
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has indicated that he could support another interest rate increase in September if inflation data remains unfavorable and bond markets continue to weaken.
Warsh entered the Federal Reserve role aiming to change the institution’s approach, particularly its reliance on signaling future policy moves through market guidance and unofficial communication.
His approach has reportedly faced resistance from some within the central bank. A Financial Times report linked recent increases in interest rates partly to Warsh’s leadership, while critics argue that previous policy decisions contributed to today’s inflation challenges.
People close to Warsh said he recognized early mistakes, including not clearly reinforcing his commitment to price stability and creating uncertainty over how long-term Fed reforms might influence near-term decisions.
Despite those challenges, Warsh is reportedly prepared to raise rates if upcoming inflation data fails to improve and bond markets experience additional selling pressure.
SpaceX shares recover ahead of major insider unlock
SpaceX shares gained 3.85% in premarket trading Thursday, rebounding from a sharp decline the previous day.
The move came as the company reached its first major lockup expiration, allowing up to 911.5 million insider shares worth more than $100 billion to enter the market.
The stock has already fallen more than 50% from its June peak of $225 and trades below its $135 IPO price, meaning much of the expected selling pressure may have already been reflected in the valuation.
The main question now is whether the market can absorb the newly available shares without additional weakness.
Smaller tokens outperform Bitcoin
Bitcoin has remained largely unchanged over the past week, but several altcoins have posted stronger gains.
MemeCore’s M token rose 24% over seven days, Pump.fun’s PUMP gained 20%, and Cardano’s ADA climbed 15%.
The moves suggest selective buying activity rather than a broad market-wide risk rally. However, strength concentrated in meme-focused tokens highlights that investors remain cautious about the broader crypto recovery.
Crypto market largely prices in CLARITY Act delay
Market participants have mostly accepted that the CLARITY Act may not pass before the Senate’s August recess, according to Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group.
The legislation aims to clarify crypto regulation in the U.S. by dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC while establishing rules for exchanges, issuers, and certain DeFi platforms.
Prediction markets have also reduced the probability of the bill passing in 2026, with odds falling sharply from earlier highs.
Kruger said regulatory progress may continue even without congressional approval, as SEC Chair Paul Atkins has suggested that agency guidance could provide a path toward clearer rules.
He identified $67,300 for Bitcoin and $2,000 for Ether as key resistance levels. A decisive move above those levels could signal the start of a stronger recovery phase.
SoftBank’s Intel gains highlight strength of AI trade
SoftBank reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly profit, supported by a major gain from its investment in Intel.
The company recorded ¥347.3 billion ($2.3 billion) in quarterly net income, helped by a ¥1.3 trillion ($8.5 billion) increase from its Intel stake after the chipmaker’s shares surged during the quarter.
The results reinforce the idea that AI-related investments remain a major driver of market performance, although gains are becoming increasingly concentrated among a small number of companies.
Bitcoin has continued to behave like a high-risk proxy for AI and technology sentiment, rising when investor confidence in the AI sector strengthens and weakening when that momentum fades.
Coinbase expands stock trading in the UK
Coinbase has introduced U.S. stock trading for eligible U.K. customers, allowing users to buy and manage selected American equities alongside their cryptocurrency holdings.
The service offers extended trading hours, commission-free transactions, and fractional share purchases, enabling users to invest with smaller amounts. Customers can fund accounts using British pounds or USDC.
The rollout began on August 6, 2026, with access being gradually extended to eligible users.
Bitcoin ETFs attract $626 million in three days
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $626 million in net inflows over three consecutive days, putting them on track for their strongest weekly performance since early May.
Analysts said continued inflows will be necessary to confirm a sustained recovery in institutional demand.
Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj noted that several consecutive days of positive ETF flows would be needed before investors can view the rebound as a lasting shift in sentiment.
Bitcoin remains near $65,000 as macro optimism grows
Bitcoin traded around $64,830 on Thursday, gaining 0.8% over 24 hours and 1.3% over the week as the market remained within a narrow range. Ether gained 2.1%, while most major cryptocurrencies showed limited movement.
The recent support for Bitcoin has come mainly from improving macro expectations rather than renewed crypto-specific demand.
Trump’s comments on strong employment, improving manufacturing conditions, cooling inflation, and a possible agreement involving the Strait of Hormuz have boosted investor confidence.
A reopening of the route could push oil prices lower, reduce inflation concerns, and potentially weaken Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar—conditions that typically support risk assets such as Bitcoin.
However, the outcome depends on multiple factors aligning. Lower oil prices must translate into reduced inflation expectations, which then need to push real yields and the dollar lower.
Bitcoin’s close relationship with equity markets also means broader risk sentiment may play a larger role than crypto-specific catalysts in the short term.
Key indicators to monitor are real yields and the dollar. A decline in both alongside oil prices could help Bitcoin break above its recent trading range, while stubbornly high yields may keep the cryptocurrency stuck near the $65,000 level.
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