Bitcoin holds above $77,000 as a 5% drop in oil lifts Asian stocks.

Bitcoin edged higher Monday as a sharp drop in oil prices helped buoy Asian equities and improve risk sentiment across crypto markets.

The leading cryptocurrency was trading near $77,200 at 6:35 UTC, up roughly 0.4% on the day, according to CoinDesk data. The move placed bitcoin just above its closely watched 50-day simple moving average near $76,940—a level many traders view as a key technical signal, with sustained strength above it often interpreted as bullish.

Other major tokens posted modest gains but continued to trail bitcoin on a technical basis. XRP and Solana (SOL) each rose more than 0.6%, while Ether (ETH) added around 0.4%. Despite the uptick, all three remained below their respective 50-day averages.

The broader market tone improved as futures tied to West Texas Intermediate crude slid more than 5% to about $91 per barrel, extending a steep decline from last week’s peak above $104. The drop in oil prices lifted Asian equities, with India’s Nifty gaining over 1%, Japan’s Nikkei climbing nearly 3%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advancing 0.4% in early trading.

The shift followed weekend reports suggesting progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy corridor that previously handled over 20% of global oil flows before tensions escalated earlier this year. While Iran’s IRGC said more than 20 tankers had recently passed through the strait, volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that negotiations with Iran were advancing, saying a “solid” agreement was on the table and a deal to end hostilities could be reached as soon as Monday. He added that Washington remains committed to exhausting diplomatic options but is prepared to take further steps if necessary.

Despite the improved macro backdrop, analysts urged caution on bitcoin’s outlook, pointing to more than $2 billion in outflows from spot ETFs over the past two weeks.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said the pace of ETF redemptions remains a critical factor. While bitcoin can absorb some institutional selling if stablecoin liquidity stays strong and long-term holders remain steady, persistent outflows could limit the durability of any rally.

India-based exchange CoinSwitch echoed a cautious stance, noting that a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement would likely be needed to sustain gains. The platform also highlighted on-chain data showing a net inflow of 18,528 BTC to centralized exchanges, signaling potential sell-side pressure even as sentiment improves.