Bitcoin Faces Fresh Pressure as Oil Surges and Fed Keeps Rate Hike Risks Alive

Bitcoin remained close to the $64,000 level despite a hawkish Federal Reserve outcome, fresh tensions involving Iran, and an overnight 8% jump in oil prices that pushed the Dow Jones down 2.2% and dragged the Nasdaq to a three-month low.

The crypto market showed relative strength on Thursday, with bitcoin trading nearly unchanged at around $63,915 and ether slipping only 0.25% since midnight UTC, even after a challenging session for global risk assets on Wednesday.

However, the quiet price action hid sharp swings around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision that forced leveraged futures traders out of positions and triggered a wave of liquidations.

Although the Fed kept rates unchanged, three policymakers voted in favor of a rate increase, reinforcing concerns that tighter monetary policy could continue. Higher borrowing costs typically reduce demand for riskier assets.

CoinGlass data showed approximately $286 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours. Long positions accounted for $186 million of the losses, while shorts represented $100 million, indicating a market that moved aggressively in both directions before returning near its original range.

Shortly after the FOMC announcement, Iran launched several ballistic missiles targeting U.S. forces, prompting President Donald Trump to warn that the U.S. would respond with significant force.

Oil prices jumped sharply, reversing earlier declines from Monday, while U.S. stocks moved lower. Despite the selloff, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures later turned slightly positive.

Derivatives Market Overview

Crypto futures sentiment turns slightly bearish:
The crypto futures long/short taker volume ratio shifted slightly toward bearish positioning, with short activity making up 51% of volume, according to CoinGlass data. Overall market participation remained subdued, with both open interest and trading volume largely unchanged from the previous session.

Uniswap’s UNI among strongest performers:
Uniswap’s UNI token ranked among the top-performing assets in the top 100 cryptocurrencies. However, futures open interest declined to 65.8 million tokens, suggesting traders were reducing positions. Its 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) also remained negative, indicating that aggressive market sellers were driving activity.

Bitcoin leverage remains steady:
Bitcoin open interest stayed near 750,000 BTC, a level it has maintained since early June. This suggests limited new participation in the recent price recovery. Ether open interest also declined below 14 million ETH after recently reaching a six-week peak of 14.53 million tokens, pointing to restrained demand for leveraged exposure despite ether outperforming bitcoin this month.

Altcoins remain dominated by sellers:
Among the 25 largest cryptocurrencies, most assets outside of bitcoin — excluding ADA, TRX, CRO, and ZEC — showed negative open-interest-adjusted CVD readings over the past 24 hours. This suggests bearish positioning continues to influence much of the altcoin market.

Bitcoin volatility declines:
Bitcoin’s BVIV 30-day implied volatility index dropped below 38%, approaching levels that have historically acted as support zones. However, volatility tends to revert toward its average, meaning a sudden rebound in volatility remains possible.

Options traders favor upside exposure:
Deribit options data showed strong demand for bitcoin call options at the $70,000 and $75,000 strike levels, which ranked among the most actively traded contracts over 24 hours. Ether options showed a similar trend, with the five most traded contracts all being call options, reflecting expectations for potential upside moves.

Token Market Update

Injective (INJ) was the strongest performer over the past 24 hours, gaining 6.95% as decentralized finance tokens led the market. Uniswap (UNI) climbed 4.46%, while FET rebounded 3.28% following a difficult week.

Zcash (ZEC) continued its recent rally, rising 1.54% since midnight UTC to $474 and maintaining its lead among privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. Monero (XMR) added 0.4%.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) declined 0.47% to $53.64, extending its pullback from last month’s highs and bringing its decline from peak levels to roughly 30%.

Lighter (LIT) dropped 4.22% over 24 hours, although it remained slightly positive since midnight, suggesting selling pressure may be easing after a correction that erased nearly 25% from its July high.

Jupiter (JUP) fell 1.48% since midnight following a short-lived recovery on Wednesday. Daily trading volume continued to weaken, falling to around $23 million after frequently exceeding $50 million earlier in the year.

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