Bitcoin Drops to $68,000 as Anthropic IPO Hype Fuels Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin fell to $68,000 overnight, marking its lowest level since August. The cryptocurrency has now lost more than 20% since early October as a series of market disruptions continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Analysts do not see a direct connection between Nvidia’s troubles and Bitcoin’s decline. Instead, they believe the selloff may be driven by investors shifting capital toward Anthropic’s highly anticipated IPO and a broader retreat from riskier assets.

Recent turmoil surrounding Nvidia, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, has unsettled the artificial intelligence sector. Persistent inflation and political uncertainty following the U.S. midterm elections have also put pressure on financial markets. However, Anthropic’s upcoming stock market debut may be emerging as a more significant factor behind the latest crypto downturn.

Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, said the latest Bitcoin decline could be linked to the opening of Anthropic’s IPO subscription books, which reportedly attracted six times more demand than the shares available. He believes investors are moving funds out of liquid markets to secure allocations in what could become the largest public offering in history.

According to Rocca, investors seeking exposure to Anthropic’s IPO, which aims to raise up to $64.4 billion, may be selling Bitcoin and other easily tradable assets to generate cash. He drew parallels with the SpaceX IPO earlier this year, which temporarily reduced Bitcoin market liquidity as investors redirected capital toward the offering.

Rocca explained that large-scale IPOs can create strong incentives for investors chasing quick gains, making liquid assets such as Bitcoin an immediate source of funding when they compete for share allocations.

Tech Stocks and Strategy Add to Market Pressure

Rocca also highlighted volatility in technology stock valuations following Jensen Huang’s unexpected departure from Nvidia, recent cybersecurity incidents, and the potential removal of Strategy from MSCI global indexes as additional factors contributing to market uncertainty.

However, several analysts believe Nvidia’s difficulties have no direct impact on Bitcoin. Instead, they attribute the cryptocurrency’s weakness to a broader deleveraging and risk-reduction trend across financial markets.

Mark Connors, chief investment strategist at Risk Dimensions, said Nvidia’s situation does not directly affect Bitcoin. He pointed to gold’s decline as evidence of widespread deleveraging across the AI-related investment trade.

Chris Sullivan, co-portfolio manager at Hyperium Decimus, also dismissed any meaningful direct connection between Nvidia and Bitcoin.

Sullivan instead highlighted increasing bearish positions against Bitcoin, with short open interest surpassing its August peak. He also cited significant withdrawals from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), extreme fear across crypto markets, and the possibility of a 50-basis-point interest rate hike within the next 30 days.

The downturn has also spread to precious metals, reinforcing the view that investors are reducing exposure to risk-sensitive assets across the board rather than responding to Bitcoin-specific developments.

Sullivan noted that metals and cryptocurrencies are declining simultaneously, describing the market behavior as unusual and unpredictable.

Jim Ferraioli, head of crypto research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, similarly questioned whether Nvidia was responsible for Bitcoin’s decline, apart from its broader influence on investor risk appetite.

Ferraioli also pointed to MSCI’s potential removal of Strategy from its indexes as another possible source of selling pressure. Such a decision could force index-tracking funds to liquidate Strategy shares, indirectly affecting the company’s Bitcoin exposure.

However, he noted that Bitcoin’s sharp decline around 11 p.m. Eastern did not clearly align with either event, suggesting neither may have been the immediate trigger.

Despite Bitcoin’s drop below $70,000, Rocca argued that the cryptocurrency has demonstrated relative resilience given the volume of negative developments affecting financial markets.

SpaceX IPO Could Provide a Bitcoin Recovery Roadmap

Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, believes Bitcoin’s latest downturn resembles its price behavior ahead of SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO in June.

According to Cole, Bitcoin declined 19% during the 50 days preceding SpaceX’s listing. The cryptocurrency has fallen approximately 18% over a similar period ahead of Anthropic’s planned IPO.

Following SpaceX’s public debut, Bitcoin experienced additional losses, reaching its bottom 18 days later before beginning a recovery. By the 100th day, its price had climbed 28% from its listing-day level.

Cole suggested that if Anthropic’s IPO follows a similar pattern, much of Bitcoin’s recent decline may already have occurred, potentially allowing the cryptocurrency to rebound over the coming months.

Based on this historical comparison, Cole projected that Bitcoin could approach $90,000 by late February if the same recovery trajectory repeats.

However, the comparison carries some uncertainty. Bitcoin’s decline surrounding the SpaceX IPO also coincided with concerns over potential BTC sales by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, making it difficult to attribute the entire downturn to the IPO-related liquidity shift alone.

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