Bitcoin Drop Fueled by Mid-Cycle Holders, While Long-Term Whales Stay Unmoved, Says VanEck

VanEck reports that Bitcoin’s recent downturn is being driven primarily by mid-cycle holders, while long-term whales remain largely steadfast, according to its “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report.

Wallets containing coins last moved within the past five years accounted for most of the selling pressure, the firm said, whereas coins untouched for over five years continue to accumulate, adding roughly 278,000 BTC over the past two years. This trend indicates that long-term conviction remains strong despite weakening market sentiment.

Bitcoin traded near multi-month lows, around $86,696 at 9:15 p.m. UTC on Thursday—down 3.2% in 24 hours and roughly 31% below its October 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts link the broader decline to forced liquidations, long-term holder distribution, and heightened volatility in offshore derivatives markets.

Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews that the main catalysts included long-term selling by “OGs,” uncertainty in the economic environment, and a mass deleveraging event on October 10. “Older, large-balance holders have been selling for several weeks, creating a flood of supply hitting the market,” he said.

Carol Alexander, finance professor at the University of Sussex, added that aggressive trading on offshore platforms is also contributing to volatility. She noted that professional traders often use order-book strategies like “spoofing” or “laddering,” focusing solely on rapid price movement.

VanEck highlighted that the 3–5 year coin cohort has dropped 32% over the past two years as coins changed addresses, a pattern the firm attributes to turnover among mid-cycle traders rather than capitulation from decade-long holders.

The report also shows a reset in speculative positioning. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has declined 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since October 9, with funding rates dropping to levels typical of prior “washed-out” periods. Smaller wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased their balances by 9% over six months and 23% over a year, even as the largest whales trimmed positions.

VanEck concluded that this combination of long-term holder stability, mid-cycle rotation, and futures-market capitulation has placed Bitcoin in a “reset” state—a pattern that historically precedes tactical rebounds.

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