Bitcoin Drifts Near $90K as Bitfinex Flags Market’s Vulnerability to Shocks

Bitcoin Hovers Near $90K as Spot Demand Weakens, Macro Risks Rise

Bitcoin remains rangebound near $90,000, signaling muted spot demand and heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks, according to Bitfinex analysts.

After a late-weekend attempt to rally, BTC saw most gains wiped out in early U.S. trading Monday, closing the day around $90,500—roughly 1% lower over 24 hours.

Altcoins showed mixed performance. Ethereum’s ETH slipped slightly but outperformed BTC, reaching its highest relative level against bitcoin in more than a month. Privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) and institutional blockchain Canton Network (CC) posted double-digit gains, while the broader crypto market, tracked by the CoinDesk 20 Index, fell 0.8%.

Macro developments added to market caution. Long-duration government bond yields surged amid concerns over Japanese debt spilling into global markets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.19%, a three-month peak, while Japanese 10-year yields approached 2%, levels not seen in nearly 20 years. U.K. and European government bonds also sold off. U.S. equities turned lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.3%, weighing on risk appetite.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is expected, any signals on future monetary policy could drive volatility. “Easing financial conditions or a weaker US dollar could support crypto, while hawkish surprises may amplify downside risks,” said LMAX strategist Joel Kruger.

Structural Headwinds for Bitcoin

Bitfinex analysts flagged persistent structural challenges for BTC. Despite a rebound from November lows, bitcoin’s rangebound behavior contrasts with near-record highs in the S&P 500, highlighting weakening relative strength.

Key indicators include:

Outflows from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, with traders selling into strength, reflected in negative Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on major exchanges.
Over seven million BTC are unrealized losses, echoing bearish sentiment reminiscent of the 2022 consolidation.
Modest capital inflows of $8.69 billion per month (Net Realized Cap Change) remain well below peak, offering limited support.

“These factors point to a fragile year-end setup,” Bitfinex analysts said. “Weaker spot demand reduces immediate price support and increases vulnerability to external shocks and macro-driven volatility.”