Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Hits One-Month Low as U.S. Demand Weakens

Bitcoin is facing pressure from softer U.S. demand, uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act and expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase.

Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium has dropped to its lowest point in four weeks, indicating weaker buying interest among U.S. investors as the crypto market absorbs the setback for digital-asset legislation and prepares for potentially tighter monetary conditions.

The Coinbase premium compares bitcoin’s dollar-denominated price on Coinbase with its USDT price on Binance. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index measures the difference as a percentage of bitcoin’s price.

On Tuesday, the index stood near -0.07%. At a bitcoin price of about $75,900, that represents a difference of roughly $50. Although the gap is relatively small, the negative reading indicates that bitcoin was trading at a discount on Coinbase compared with Binance.

The discount widened from approximately -0.02% on Monday to around -0.07% on Tuesday, coinciding with the Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act. The move reverses conditions seen in late August and early September, when the Coinbase premium turned positive for the first time in several months as bitcoin approached $80,000.

Bitcoin has since pulled back toward $75,000, while the declining Coinbase premium points to softer demand on the U.S. exchange.

Fed Decision Adds Pressure

Monetary policy is providing another source of uncertainty for bitcoin. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest decision later Wednesday, with markets broadly anticipating a 25-basis-point rate increase.

A quarter-point hike would raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4%.

Higher rates can reduce demand and help contain inflation by increasing borrowing costs, but they cannot directly address an energy supply disruption. That creates an additional challenge if energy prices remain elevated.

More expensive financing could also weigh on companies committing large amounts of capital to artificial intelligence infrastructure, where investment requirements remain substantial.

Oil and Treasury Yields Stay Elevated

Energy prices remain high amid tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude is trading around $108 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is near $104.

Persistently expensive oil could keep inflation pressures elevated, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

At the same time, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, adding to the tightening of financial conditions.

The combination of higher Treasury yields, elevated energy costs, expectations for tighter monetary policy and uncertainty over U.S. crypto regulation is creating a challenging environment for bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.