Bitcoin Bears Pay Premium as Futures Positions Near 2026 Lows

Demand for leveraged bitcoin exposure remains subdued, with futures open interest falling toward one of its lowest points of the year. Among the traders who remain active, positioning appears increasingly tilted toward the downside.

Bitcoin futures open interest has declined to about 652,000 BTC, according to CoinGlass data, compared with a peak of roughly 800,000 BTC earlier this year.

The decline suggests that traders are pulling capital from leveraged positions even though bitcoin gained about 40% during the third quarter.

Negative Funding Signals Bearish Positioning

Perpetual futures funding rates have also turned negative again, averaging around minus 0.3% across major exchanges.

Because every futures position has both a long and a short side, funding rates indicate which side is more aggressive. When funding turns negative, short sellers pay longs to maintain their positions, indicating that traders betting on lower prices are willing to incur a cost to remain in the market.

The latest negative funding readings therefore point to renewed bearish positioning in bitcoin derivatives.

The shift comes after bitcoin fell about 2% to roughly $82,800 over a 24-hour period following President Donald Trump’s refusal to rule out additional strikes on Iran before the U.S. midterm elections.

Despite the decline, bitcoin remains more than $20,000 above its summer cycle low and continues to be the strongest-performing asset of the third quarter.

Gold Also Falls as Dollar Gains

Bitcoin is facing broader pressure across major markets.

Gold has dropped approximately 3% over the past 24 hours to around $4,150 per ounce. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which tracks how many ounces of gold can be purchased with one bitcoin, is approaching 20, putting it close to turning positive for the year.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, with the DXY index climbing above 101 as Treasury yields continue to move higher.

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 5.2%, while the 30-year yield is above 5.51%.

Higher Yields Pressure Risk Assets

Strength in the U.S. economy may be supporting the dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher, although persistent inflation concerns could also be contributing to increased borrowing costs.

Higher yields generally weigh on existing bond prices. TLT, an exchange-traded fund that holds long-duration U.S. Treasuries, has fallen to around $79, marking an all-time low.

The rise in yields also increases the appeal of income-generating assets compared with bitcoin and gold, neither of which provides an interest payment to holders.