Asia Morning Briefing: Fed Rate Cut Fails to Jolt Bitcoin as Focus Shifts to Japan

CryptoQuant data suggests selling pressure is beginning to fade as large holders scale back exchange deposits, while traders look ahead to a closely watched Bank of Japan meeting that could have implications for global liquidity.

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily rundown of key developments during U.S. trading hours alongside market moves and analysis. For broader coverage of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

The market’s current calm extends beyond central bank decisions. In its latest report, CryptoQuant said exchange inflows have dropped sharply from November highs, with whales pulling back deposits and easing near-term sell pressure. That shift has allowed bitcoin to trade within a tight range.

CryptoQuant noted that whales realized more than $600 million in losses when bitcoin first fell below $100,000, followed by an estimated $3.2 billion in cumulative realized losses. Short-term holders have been selling at negative margins since mid-November — behavior that typically appears only after sentiment has already capitulated. Historically, that combination has marked the point at which selling pressure begins to exhaust itself.

Those dynamics have kept bitcoin pinned near $92,000 despite multiple macro catalysts.

QCP cautioned that stability does not yet signal renewed conviction. The firm described a market still in wait-and-see mode, noting that spot ETF inflows have improved only marginally and derivatives positioning remains cautious.

Attention is now turning to Tokyo, where prediction markets strongly favor a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s December 19 meeting. QCP said Japan may represent the next major catalyst, with long-end JGB yields pushing multi-decade highs and policymakers signaling concern about the speed of the move.

For now, markets remain orderly, with the near-term outlook likely to hinge on how Japan’s policy decision reshapes global risk appetite.

Market movement

BTC: Bitcoin traded quietly between $91,000 and $92,000, largely unfazed by the Fed’s rate cut as muted onchain flows kept volatility low.
ETH: Ether tracked the same subdued tone, holding near $3,270 with no clear catalyst to drive a breakout.
Gold: Gold climbed after the Fed’s cut despite uncertainty over next year’s policy path, while silver reached a record on strong industrial demand and tight supply.
Nikkei 225: Most Asia-Pacific equities moved higher following the Fed’s third rate cut of the year, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 erased early gains to slip 0.11%.