Asia Morning Briefing: Even as Saylor Signals a Cooler Market, Polymarket Bettors Continue to Anticipate Big Strategic Purchases

CryptoQuant’s newest research points to a strategic shift toward caution, with the company reducing its bitcoin purchases and building a larger USD reserve in anticipation of weaker market conditions. Yet prediction markets continue to assume a playbook centered on steady accumulation.

According to the report, Strategy appears to be preparing for a potential multi-month downturn in BTC. That outlook contrasts sharply with Polymarket sentiment, where traders still expect the firm to behave much like it did during the aggressive buying cycles of 2021.

The weekly analysis highlights a clear pivot by Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury operation: instead of relentless accumulation, the firm is prioritizing balance-sheet stability. The addition of a dedicated USD reserve — along with more explicit references to hedging or even selling during stress — signals a more defensive stance.

Prediction markets, however, remain unconvinced. Polymarket odds show only a slim chance of a BTC sale in Q1, while expectations for ongoing smaller buys remain strong. Traders continue to price in routine MSTR purchases, despite the fact that each buy now carries far less weight.

The likelihood of any acquisition exceeding 1,000 BTC sits at just 40%–45%. CryptoQuant notes that these smaller “maintenance buys,” which preserve the firm’s accumulation narrative without meaningfully affecting supply, have become the norm. Monthly purchasing volume is now down more than 90% from a year ago.

Strategy’s average buy size has dropped from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year. At the same time, DAT inflows have fallen to their weakest levels since mid-June, meaning bitcoin treasury firms are no longer a major source of market absorption.

Taken together — lighter treasury demand, softening DAT flows, and a more cautious MSTR — the report suggests a materially different supply backdrop heading into 2026. Bitcoin’s ability to resume its uptrend will likely depend on new demand sources stepping in to replace last cycle’s corporate buying.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin reversed an early decline to $91,800 and hovered near $93,000, though its recent 10% two-day surge is now stalling at resistance near the 2025 yearly open around $93,400.

ETH: Ether rose above $3,100 and touched a two-week high near $3,200 after a 3.5% daily gain.

Gold: Gold dipped slightly to just over $4,200 as traders positioned ahead of key U.S. inflation data, though renewed geopolitical tensions and a softening dollar outlook could support a rebound.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix climbing about 1.3% following strong U.S. jobs data that boosted Wall Street and strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.

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