According to Tom Lee, massive tech IPO supply in the trillions won’t drag down the S&P 500

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee says an expected surge of mega IPOs from firms like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could introduce trillions of dollars in new equity supply—but he does not see it as a threat to broader markets.

Now chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Lee noted that the scale of these potential listings could rival the dot-com era, possibly even exceeding it. Still, he believes markets are well-positioned to absorb the influx.

Among them, SpaceX stands out as a historic candidate. Lee estimates the company could pursue a valuation above $1.5 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs ever—second only to Saudi Aramco on an inflation-adjusted basis.

While concerns remain about the sheer volume of shares entering the market—especially after the typical 90-day lock-up period ends—Lee estimates that combined offerings from these firms could amount to roughly 5% to 6% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500.

Despite that, he maintains a constructive outlook. According to Lee, major investor groups such as family offices, pension funds, and high-net-worth individuals are currently underweight public equities after years of shifting toward private markets and alternative assets. That positioning, he argues, leaves ample capital ready to rotate back into U.S. stocks and absorb new issuance.

He also suggested that early investors may be less inclined to sell immediately after listings, instead choosing to hedge positions or borrow against holdings to avoid triggering large tax liabilities.

Beyond equities, Lee pointed to the evolving role of digital assets. While cryptocurrencies have lagged expectations despite growing institutional participation, he highlighted how features like instant settlement and real-time verification are fueling Wall Street’s interest in tokenization—a theme he previously discussed at Consensus Miami 2026.

Looking ahead, Lee said blockchain technology could play a key role in providing neutral systems for identity verification in an increasingly AI-driven world. He added that banks are increasingly exploring the space as they recognize new revenue opportunities emerging at the intersection of crypto, artificial intelligence, and traditional finance.

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