According to Grayscale, regulatory developments will shape crypto in 2026 more than fears of quantum threats.

As 2025 comes to a close, investors are zeroing in on two key questions for digital assets: when Washington will enact a comprehensive regulatory framework, and whether advances in quantum computing pose an immediate threat to blockchain security, according to a Monday report from crypto asset manager Grayscale.

Grayscale analysts argue that one of these issues will drive markets in the near term, while the other is likely to be more of a distraction. The firm expects a bipartisan crypto market structure bill to pass in 2026, marking a significant milestone for the industry. Although negotiations over specifics continue, the broad direction is clear: lawmakers are moving toward a traditional financial-market rulebook for crypto, including registration and disclosure requirements, clearer classifications of digital assets, and safeguards for insiders.

A harmonized regulatory framework in the U.S., and potentially other major economies, could accelerate adoption. Regulated financial firms may feel more confident holding digital assets on their balance sheets, while clearer legal rules could encourage institutions to transact directly on blockchains. Grayscale says this represents the early stages of a more institutional era for crypto.

By contrast, the firm views quantum computing risks as real but overstated for 2026. While theoretically, powerful quantum computers could derive private keys from public ones and enable fraudulent transactions, Grayscale expects these concerns to generate headlines rather than materially impact near-term prices. Over the long term, blockchains, including Bitcoin, will need to adopt post-quantum cryptography, but these risks remain distant for now.