Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, says Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook is unusually hard to predict, even as the firm remains long-term bullish.
In a Dec. 21 post on X, Thorn called the coming year “too chaotic to predict,” citing macro uncertainty, political risk, and uneven crypto market momentum. His remarks are based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report, “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” which outlines expectations for crypto markets and institutional adoption.
Thorn noted that the broader crypto market is currently deep in a bear phase, with Bitcoin struggling to regain sustained bullish momentum. He warned that downside risk remains until Bitcoin decisively trades above the $100,000–$105,000 range.
Options markets highlight uncertainty
Derivatives markets underline the unpredictability. According to Thorn, Bitcoin options suggest roughly equal odds for vastly different outcomes in 2026: prices near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-year, and $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end. These wide ranges indicate that institutional traders are preparing for large swings rather than a clear directional trend.
Signs of a maturing market
Thorn also points to structural changes that signal market maturation. Long-term Bitcoin volatility has been declining, partly due to institutional strategies like options overwriting and yield-generation programs, which dampen extreme price movements.
Bitcoin’s volatility smile—showing how option prices vary across strike levels—further reflects this evolution. Downside protection is now priced higher than upside exposure, a pattern more common in mature assets like equities or commodities.
Why a quiet 2026 may not matter
For Thorn, these trends suggest that even a potentially range-bound or “boring” 2026 wouldn’t undermine Bitcoin’s long-term case. He expects institutional adoption and market maturation to continue, even if prices drift toward long-term technical levels like the 200-week moving average.
Galaxy’s report highlights that mainstream investment platforms could incorporate Bitcoin into standard portfolios, generating persistent flows regardless of market cycles. Thorn sees expanding institutional access, potential easing of monetary policy, and demand for alternatives to fiat as key drivers.
Looking further ahead, Galaxy predicts Bitcoin could follow gold’s path as a hedge against monetary debasement, potentially reaching $250,000 by the end of 2027.
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