Bitcoin reclaimed ground above $68,000 on Thursday, rebounding from a local trough near $65,600 even as U.S. spot ETF outflows swelled to $6.8 billion. Analysts say a sustained push beyond $72,000 would be needed to confirm a broader bullish reversal.
The recovery gathered momentum overnight. Since midnight UTC, bitcoin gained roughly 2%, while Solana (SOL) advanced 2.7% and ether (ETH) added 1.2%.
Despite the bounce, the broader structure remains fragile. Bitcoin continues to carve out lower highs and lower lows, effectively unwinding much of the rally seen in the 12 months through October 2025. In the near term, the asset remains range-bound, oscillating between key support and resistance levels. A clean break above $72,000 is widely viewed as the trigger required to shift momentum decisively in favor of bulls.
Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have experienced their deepest drawdown of the current cycle. Since October, approximately 100,300 BTC have flowed out of these products — equivalent to roughly $6.8 billion in additional market supply during a period of already cautious sentiment.
Derivatives show stabilization, but caution lingers
Futures markets are beginning to stabilize. Open interest has climbed to $15.8 billion, signaling a move away from aggressive deleveraging toward a more balanced positioning environment. Retail sentiment appears to be recovering as well, with funding rates turning flat to positive across major venues and reaching as high as 10% on exchanges such as Bybit and Hyperliquid.
Institutional conviction, however, remains measured. The three-month annualized futures basis is holding around 3%, suggesting steady but not exuberant positioning.
In options markets, activity shows a slight tilt toward calls, with 24-hour volume split 51% in favor of upside exposure. At the same time, short-term hedging demand remains elevated. The one-week 25-delta skew has widened to 17%, and the implied volatility term structure continues to show backwardation in the front end.
That dynamic indicates traders are still paying a “panic premium” for near-term protection, even as longer-dated implied volatility levels stabilize near 49%.
Liquidations underscore the ongoing volatility. Coinglass data shows $179 million in positions were wiped out over the past 24 hours, split 56% long and 44% short. Bitcoin accounted for $59 million in liquidations, ether $46 million, and other tokens roughly $16 million. Binance’s liquidation heatmap highlights $68,400 as a key level to monitor if prices extend higher.
Altcoins outperform during consolidation
Beyond bitcoin, altcoins showed relative strength. Lending token MORPHO jumped more than 12% overnight, while AI payments token KITE gained 11%, extending its 30-day surge to 153%.
DeFi assets also participated in the rotation. Jupiter (JUP) rose over 3.6% after touching its lowest level in seven days earlier in the session.
Among broader indices, the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index (SCPXC) led performance with a 2.25% gain over 24 hours, followed closely by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME), which rose 2.2%. The bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 20 (CD20) advanced a more modest 1%, reflecting comparatively restrained moves among major tokens.
Periods of consolidation often create room for capital rotation into higher-beta names, as traders seek speculative upside while bitcoin, ether and XRP remain confined within defined ranges.
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