After Trump Targets Iran’s Nuclear Facility, Traders See 52% Chance Tehran Shuts Hormuz Strait on Polymarket

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding firm above the $100,000 mark, maintaining its weeks-long sideways trend despite a sharp spike in geopolitical risks stemming from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

Traders are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil chokepoint, after U.S. airstrikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend.

On Polymarket, betting activity surged, sending the price of “Yes” shares in the market “Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz before June 30?” up to 40 cents, signaling a 40% probability—a significant jump from 14% just a day earlier. Bets on a closure happening by year-end climbed to 52%, up from 33% on Saturday.

About 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait daily, accounting for roughly 20% of global oil consumption, per the Middle East Forum Observer. A closure could spark major disruptions in global oil markets.

Analysts at JPMorgan warned that shutting the Strait could push crude oil prices to $120–$130 per barrel, potentially triggering stagflation—a damaging mix of rising inflation and slowing economic growth that could rattle broader financial markets, including crypto.

Despite these heightened risks, crypto markets showed resilience over the weekend. Bitcoin remained comfortably above the $100,000 threshold, according to CoinDesk data.

Tensions reached a new high after former President Donald Trump confirmed late Saturday that U.S. forces carried out airstrikes, destroying three key Iranian nuclear enrichment sites. Trump framed the action as a move to force “the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace.”