Traders Track These BTC Levels for Signs of Further Downside

Markets Coil as Stablecoin Reserves Hit Highs and Bitcoin Tests Crucial Levels

Crypto traders are watching the sidelines—literally.

Stablecoin reserves on centralized exchanges have surged to their highest levels in years, suggesting that investors are sitting on deployable capital and waiting for a clear directional cue, rather than heading for the exits.

At the same time, crypto markets remain largely range-bound. Bitcoin hovered around $105,000 on Wednesday, staging a modest rebound after slipping earlier in the week. Ether, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano each posted minimal moves, while overall market cap slipped 1.8%, reflecting a lack of conviction.

“The market’s consolidating, not collapsing,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research. “Macro headwinds like trade tensions and slowing growth are being absorbed, and institutional confidence in crypto—especially Bitcoin—is growing stronger.”

Data from Matteo Greco at Fineqia backs this view. Bitcoin ended last week at $105,700, down just over 3% from the week before, as spot ETF flows turned slightly negative for the first time in over a month, with $150 million in net outflows. Still, BTC reserves on exchanges continue to shrink, typically a bullish sign as long-term holders remove supply from circulation.

Meanwhile, Greco highlighted a key data point: stablecoin reserves have surged. “That’s a classic sign of sidelined capital ready to re-enter,” he noted. At the same time, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio sits at 2.2—far from the 3.7 level historically associated with cycle tops—implying we may still be in a late-stage bull market, but not near exhaustion.

Bitunix analysts pointed to $105,000 as the near-term battleground. “If BTC holds above that, momentum could build,” they wrote. “But if risk-off sentiment returns, $102,700 becomes the key level to watch on the downside.”

As Bitcoin dominance shows signs of softening, some analysts see a potential rotation into altcoins—often a signal that the market is entering the later stages of a bullish cycle.

With exchange reserves brimming with stablecoins and volatility compressed, the crypto market appears primed for its next major move—whether up or down.