In a Decade, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Will Be the World’s Largest, Michael Saylor Claims.

Over the past five trading days, U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have seen a surge of roughly $2.8 billion in net inflows, fueling Bitcoin’s rally from around $85,000 to $94,000. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the standout, drawing in $1.3 billion of that total.

Speaking at Bitcoin Standard Corporation’s Investor Day, MicroStrategy (MSTR) Chairman Michael Saylor made a bold prediction: “IBIT will be the biggest ETF in the world within ten years.”

Currently, IBIT commands a $54 billion market cap, with Thursday’s trading volume alone topping $1.5 billion. For comparison, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) — the world’s largest ETF — holds a massive $593.5 billion market cap, more than ten times larger than IBIT’s.

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, said IBIT surpassing VOO is within the realm of possibility, though he stressed it would require extraordinary circumstances.
“It could happen, especially if IBIT consistently draws more money than VOO. But we’re talking about needing $3 to $4 billion a day in inflows — not just $1 billion — to really close the gap,” Balchunas explained. “It would take some remarkable developments, but it’s not out of the question.”

Meanwhile, the annualized return from the Bitcoin ETF basis trade — a strategy involving going long on ETFs and short on CME Bitcoin futures — has climbed to nearly 10%, doubling from about 5% earlier this month. Along with a 2,000 BTC rise in futures open interest over the past week, this suggests that a notable portion of the recent ETF inflows may be driven by basis trading, rather than purely bullish positioning.