Bitcoin Misses Stock Market Rally as ETF Outflows Reach Four-Day Streak

Bitcoin traded in a narrow range near $74,000 after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data pushed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike to approximately 90%. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF withdrawals continued for a fourth consecutive session, while crypto futures liquidations increased sharply.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained relatively unchanged since midnight UTC, trading around $74,000 after briefly falling to $72,700 on Tuesday. Ether (ETH) also held near $2,050. Meanwhile, the CoinDesk Memecoin Index declined 1.2%, and the CoinDesk 80 Index slipped 0.3%.

The subdued performance in the cryptocurrency market contrasted with a recovery in U.S. equity futures early Wednesday. Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 1.7% after AI cloud computing company CoreWeave reported earnings that exceeded market expectations.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $95 million in net outflows on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue, marking their fourth consecutive day of withdrawals. BlackRock’s IBIT led the decline, accounting for $78 million in redemptions and extending its outflow streak to eight trading sessions.

Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase at its Dec. 8–9 meeting climbed to 90%, according to CME FedWatch. The shift followed Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report, which showed consumer prices rising 0.4% in October, above economists’ forecasts. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin declined 0.7%, while Ether lost 1.7%.

U.S. bond markets remained closed Wednesday in observance of Veterans Day.

Derivatives Positioning

Crypto liquidations surge: Total liquidations across cryptocurrency futures markets jumped 288% to $725 million over 24 hours, coinciding with the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation report, according to CoinGlass. Trading volume increased 24% to $204.8 billion, while open interest declined 1% to $127.2 billion, suggesting traders were reducing their market exposure.

Bitcoin funding remains positive but subdued: Bitcoin open interest decreased 0.2%, compared with a 0.6% decline in its price. Funding rates remained positive at 0.0078%, equivalent to an annualized 8.6%, below the 0.01% benchmark. This indicates that long-position holders are still paying short sellers, although the premium is weaker than usual. The taker buy/sell ratio stood at 0.97, indicating greater selling pressure. Bitcoin liquidations reached $200.5 million, with long positions accounting for 85% of the total. Meanwhile, the annualized basis on December contracts remained between 5% and 7%.

Ether liquidations exceed Bitcoin: Ether experienced $253 million in liquidations, surpassing Bitcoin despite having an open interest of $25.2 billion, roughly half Bitcoin’s size. Ether open interest dropped 3.6%, while its price declined 1.7%, indicating capital was leaving the derivatives market. Its funding rate remained positive at 0.0059%.

Altcoin positions unwind: Zcash (ZEC) recorded the largest liquidations among altcoins at $40.3 million after losing approximately 13%. Its open interest also dropped 10.5%. XRP open interest declined 3.8% against a 1.8% price decrease, while HYPE open interest fell 3% compared with a 2.2% decline in price. These sharper reductions in open interest suggest traders are withdrawing capital rather than simply reacting to falling prices.

Traditional finance contracts attract trading activity: Four of the 10 most actively traded perpetual futures contracts over the past 24 hours were linked to traditional financial assets, according to Coinalyze. These included the Direxion 3x Semiconductor ETF (SOXL) with $8.4 billion in volume, SanDisk with $4.4 billion, gold with $2.4 billion, and Nvidia with $2 billion. SOXL trading volume exceeded that of Solana and XRP. Open interest in Nvidia perpetual futures climbed 50% to $411 million after the stock declined 5.5% on Tuesday.

Bitcoin put options dominate: Put trading volume for Deribit Bitcoin options expiring between Nov. 12 and Nov. 27 was 1.5 times higher than call volume. Eight of the 10 most actively traded contracts were puts, concentrated at strike prices between $69,000 and $74,000. The Nov. 27 $69,000 put attracted the most activity. Friday’s expiry, however, remained heavily concentrated in far out-of-the-money calls, with the largest open interest at the $81,000 strike (8,306 BTC) and $84,000 strike (5,231 BTC).

Volatility remains stable as downside protection costs more: At-the-money implied volatility stood near 36% for Nov. 27 options and 38% for Nov. 13 contracts. Meanwhile, 25-delta puts traded at a premium of approximately four to five volatility points over comparable calls, highlighting continued demand for protection against further price declines.

Token Developments

Telegram-related crypto activity returned to the spotlight as gram (GRAM), the renamed toncoin, topped the CoinDesk 100 with gains of approximately 5% since midnight UTC. The move followed comments from Telegram founder Pavel Durov two days earlier, when he revealed that more than 700,000 wallets had been created within the application over a 48-hour period.

Zcash (ZEC) faced renewed selling pressure, falling approximately 14% over 24 hours as leveraged long positions were liquidated and investors withdrew funds from Grayscale’s Zcash ETF. Monero (XMR) moved in the opposite direction, gaining 2% since midnight UTC.

Midnight (NIGHT), the privacy-focused blockchain associated with Cardano, advanced approximately 5% since midnight UTC after its Ledger 9 upgrade went live on the mainnet earlier this week.

Altcoins continued to underperform Bitcoin, with market indicators showing limited signs of a broader rotation into smaller cryptocurrencies. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index stood at 40 out of 100, down from 49 last Thursday and significantly below the 75 threshold commonly associated with an altcoin season.

Bitcoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market increased to 60.5%, compared with 59.9% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remained at 26, keeping overall market sentiment firmly in fear territory.

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