Bitcoin news: Willy Woo’s 10,000 simulated Bitcoin price paths suggest a potential cycle peak of $413,000 in December 2028. The analysis explores how declining returns across successive market cycles influence the forecast and highlights the factors the model does not account for.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo published 10,000 simulated Bitcoin price trajectories on Monday, October 26. The model uses a random-walk approach based on Bitcoin’s historical price behavior and incorporates the declining returns seen in successive market cycles to estimate possible future highs and lows. The key takeaway attracting traders’ attention is that the median scenario places Bitcoin’s next peak at $413,000 in December 2028.
Woo, however, is more reserved about the results. Describing the projection as optimistic, he identified the range between approximately the 28th and 50th percentiles as a more reasonable outcome. That puts a potential 2028 peak between $241,000 and $413,000. He also emphasized that the figures represent a simulation rather than his personal price prediction.
Bitcoin is trading at $79,770 today. This raises two important questions: What do Woo’s simulations actually indicate, and which important market factors are missing from the analysis?
How Does the Decline in Bitcoin Returns Work?
The concept of diminishing returns suggests that each Bitcoin market cycle generates a smaller percentage gain than the previous one. As the asset’s market value increases, significantly more capital is needed to produce comparable price movements.
Bitcoin’s historical performance illustrates this pattern. The cryptocurrency climbed from approximately $1,150 at its 2013 peak to nearly $20,000 in late 2017, representing a roughly 17-fold increase. Its 2021 high of $69,000 was around 3.5 times the previous cycle’s peak, while its October 2025 record of $126,080 was only about 1.8 times the 2021 high.
A power-law model attempts to capture this gradual reduction in returns rather than treating price changes as entirely random. The “c=0.45” value in the chart’s subtitle determines the rate at which those returns diminish.
The model is also described as “phase-conditioned.” This means it generates simulated daily movements according to Bitcoin’s position within its market cycle, whether it is rallying, approaching a peak, declining through a bear market, or recovering. This approach preserves the four-year cycle structure across the 10,000 simulated price paths.
Compared with Bitcoin’s historical performance, the median projection remains ambitious. A peak of $413,000 would represent approximately 3.3 times the 2025 record, substantially exceeding the previous cycle’s relative gain. By contrast, the lower estimate of $241,000 would be roughly 1.9 times the previous peak, much closer to the 1.8-fold increase recorded during the latest completed cycle.
What Important Factors Does the Simulation Exclude?
Woo’s emphasis on the word “simulation” is important because the model relies heavily on historical price behavior. A random-walk framework trained on past data assumes that Bitcoin’s future movements will retain characteristics of previous cycles, including similar fluctuations and a recurring four-year pattern. However, the cryptocurrency market has evolved considerably.
Several factors could cause actual price movements to diverge from the simulated paths.
Institutional demand: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately $102.8 billion in Bitcoin, while Strategy owns 848,517 BTC. These major sources of institutional exposure did not exist in earlier market cycles, and their buying or selling activity does not necessarily follow Bitcoin’s halving schedule.
Interest rates and liquidity: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September and is scheduled to make another policy decision on Wednesday. Monetary conditions can significantly affect investor appetite for risk assets, meaning future Bitcoin cycles may unfold differently from previous periods of easier financial conditions.
Remaining Bitcoin supply: Approximately 20.1 million of the cryptocurrency’s maximum supply of 21 million coins have already been mined. As a result, each subsequent halving reduces the amount of newly issued Bitcoin by a smaller absolute quantity, potentially changing the effect of supply reductions on the market.
Regulation and technological risks: Regulatory developments, competition from other digital assets, and emerging technical threats—including quantum computing—are not incorporated into a price model based primarily on historical market behavior.
Limited historical data: Bitcoin has experienced only four complete market cycles. Generating 10,000 possible price paths does not overcome this limitation, because the simulations still rely on a historical record containing only four major cycle peaks.
Consequently, Woo’s chart is best understood as a framework for exploring possible outcomes rather than a definitive forecast. It illustrates how Bitcoin could behave under a particular set of historical assumptions, but it cannot establish a reliable future price target or determine when a market peak will occur.
Bitcoin Price Today: Key Levels to Monitor
Bitcoin is currently trading at $79,770, down 2.1% over the past week and approximately 36.7% below its October 2025 record. The price remains below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), positioned at $80,765.
Buyers defended the $79,221 level on Saturday and again on Monday, making it an important short-term support area.
On the upside, resistance stands at $81,480, where Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempts encountered selling pressure. A move above that level could bring the next resistance near $82,850 into focus.
On the downside, $79,221 is the immediate support to watch. If Bitcoin falls below it, the 200-day EMA at $76,382 represents another important technical level.
For now, traders are monitoring whether Bitcoin can reclaim its short-term moving average and overcome nearby resistance. Meanwhile, Woo’s simulation offers a longer-term perspective on how diminishing cycle returns could shape Bitcoin’s potential trajectory toward 2028.
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