Bitcoin’s $12B Options Expiry Won’t Disrupt Market Stability, According to Deribit

Bitcoin’s $12B Options Expiry Unlikely to Trigger Major Price Swings, Says Deribit

Despite the sheer size of Bitcoin’s (BTC) upcoming options expiry, key market indicators suggest that the event is unlikely to spark significant volatility, according to crypto derivatives exchange Deribit.

On Friday, over 139,000 BTC option contracts, valued at approximately $12.13 billion, will settle—accounting for nearly 45% of the total open BTC options. While large expiries have historically led to heightened price swings, Deribit’s data indicates a more muted response this time.

Over 65% of the open interest is concentrated in call options, which allow traders to buy BTC at a set price, while the remainder consists of put options used for downside protection. However, Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) has steadily declined from 62% to 48% in the past few weeks, reflecting lowered expectations for significant price movement. Additionally, the annualized perpetual futures funding rate remains stable at 5%, reinforcing the view of a calm market.

“Despite the scale of this expiry, a combination of factors—including declining DVOL, moderate futures basis, and balanced options positioning—suggests a relatively uneventful settlement unless unexpected external catalysts arise,” said Luuk Strijers, CEO of Deribit.

Short-Term Hedging Increases, But Broader Sentiment Remains Positive

Options skew, which measures the pricing difference between call and put options, shows some traders are hedging against short-term downside risk, though the medium-term outlook remains constructive.

“3-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly positive, indicating increased short-term hedging, but the 30-Day Put-Call Skew remains slightly negative, which signals a longer-term bullish stance,” Strijers explained.

Ether (ETH) options worth $2.8 billion are also scheduled to expire on the same day.

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