Bitcoin Extends Longest Winning Streak Since 2012

Bitcoin’s 10% September advance has put the cryptocurrency on course for a rare three-month winning streak, a pattern last recorded in 2012.

Bitcoin has already posted gains in July and August and is on track to finish September in positive territory, potentially marking only the second three-month winning run in its history.

According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin climbed 4.8% in July and surged 25.2% in August. September has also remained positive, with the cryptocurrency trading about 10.9% higher at $86,140 at the time of writing.

The only previous occurrence came in 2012, when Bitcoin gained 41.0% in July, 6.4% in August and 24.4% in September.

The streak ended in October that year, when Bitcoin dropped 9.7%. The decline reached a low of $10.17 on Oct. 26, however, before Bitcoin began one of the strongest rallies in its early history. Over the following 165 days, its price climbed to $230 by April 2013, representing a gain of more than 2,000%, based on CoinDesk’s analysis of daily price data.

Whether Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory this year, with a weaker October followed by another major rally, remains uncertain. The 2012 episode alone offers too little historical evidence to establish a reliable pattern. Bitcoin has traded since at least late 2010, yet this particular three-month sequence has appeared only once before.

Even so, the setup stands out because of its rarity, the massive rally that followed the 2012 example and Bitcoin’s broader four-year market cycle. Some cycle models suggest a potentially stronger phase could emerge around October or November, although such historical cycles should be viewed as approximate patterns rather than fixed calendar rules.

The scale of any future rally could also differ significantly from Bitcoin’s early years. In 2012, Bitcoin was a thinly traded asset valued at roughly $10, meaning a relatively small group of buyers could have a substantial impact on its price.

Bitcoin now operates within a multitrillion-dollar market with significant institutional participation, deeper spot and derivatives liquidity across numerous venues and a wide range of trading strategies involving options, futures and basis trades. These markets were nowhere near their current scale in 2012, making a rally of comparable percentage magnitude considerably more difficult today.

“Bitcoin now belongs to a global asset class with institutional ownership. Spot ETFs have created a regulated channel for investment. Derivatives markets have changed how risk is transferred. The rally of more than 2,000% that followed the 2012 sequence cannot become a reasonable expectation for 2026,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, said while commenting on the data.

Subburaj said the current market is structurally different, with institutional capital playing a much larger role.

“The real change is therefore one of market structure. Bitcoin’s rise in 2012 began in a market that could be transformed by a small pool of buyers. The case in 2026 depends on whether large pools of capital continue allocating after the easiest gains have been made,” he said.

Institutional participation has also returned to crypto markets, with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs serving as one indicator. According to SoSoValue, the funds have attracted more than $5.5 billion in investor inflows since August.

“The durability of those allocations matters more,” Subburaj said.

History May Rhyme

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said historical patterns can offer context but should not be treated as exact repetitions, particularly when considering Bitcoin’s four-year cycles.

“We always look for patterns, and Bitcoin has, for better or worse, continued to adhere to the 4-year cycle. Sometimes slightly late, sometimes early, so it is not unsurprising that we see certain patterns play out again and again (to a certain degree, of course),” Sondergaard told CoinDesk.

He added that the historical setup does not guarantee a weaker October, although a moderate pullback would not be unexpected after Bitcoin’s recent performance.

“It is not a guarantee that we will now see a red October, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see some drawback (not a wild new low) but some drawback in the coming weeks given how the market has been performing,” Sondergaard said.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, said the more important consideration may be what is driving Bitcoin’s current advance rather than the historical calendar pattern itself. She pointed to institutional ETF flows, which could continue absorbing supply during the fourth quarter even if the impact of the recent short squeeze fades.

At the same time, Zhang said macroeconomic conditions remain an important factor.

“The main counterweight remains macro conditions, with the Fed raising rates to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that another hike could follow this year. Whether spot inflows remain positive after the squeeze fades will therefore be a more useful signal of durability than the calendar pattern itself,” Zhang said.

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