Developments in Washington and the latest ETF flow data have suddenly made the next few weeks more important for Bitcoin. Meta AI expects the coming three months to be particularly significant, forecasting Bitcoin to trade between $78,000 and $92,000 by the end of 2026, with a central estimate of $85,000.
September 15 represents the first major catalyst. The Senate is expected to determine whether the Clarity Act can secure the 60 votes required to advance. If the legislation passes, it could remove a significant source of regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. and potentially alter the risk assessment for investors who have remained cautious.
The American Reserve and Market Accumulation Act, or ARMA, represents a potentially larger Bitcoin-specific development. The House proposal would permit the Treasury to acquire as many as 1 million BTC over a five-year period.
The proposal would also require the government to retain those Bitcoin holdings for 20 years. Purchases of that magnitude combined with a two-decade holding period could take a substantial amount of Bitcoin supply off the market for an extended period rather than temporarily reducing available supply.
ETF activity is already showing signs of improvement. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $159.9 million in net inflows on Sept. 14, giving the week a strong start as the market moved further into September.
The bearish scenario, however, presents a different setup. A return to net ETF outflows would represent one of the first signs of renewed selling pressure.
Meta AI’s Bitcoin Forecast: Three Months, Two Bills and a Potential Major Buyer
Bitcoin’s weekly chart suggests that the market has already gone through a major cycle peak. The cryptocurrency reached approximately $126,000 in mid-2025 before beginning a prolonged decline.
The market structure deteriorated toward the end of 2025, with Bitcoin falling from around $120,000 to approximately $84,000. The largest decline came in early 2026, when Bitcoin dropped toward $58,000.
A recovery attempt during the spring pushed prices back toward roughly $82,000. That rebound failed by June, sending Bitcoin back toward the low-$60,000 range.
Over the past several weeks, Bitcoin has established a relatively shallow base. Higher lows have appeared, although the recovery has yet to develop significant upside momentum.
The latest weekly close stood at $63,078, down 2.74%, or $1,780. Bitcoin traded within a weekly range of $62,470 to $65,333.
According to the highlighted technical levels, support is located around $72,000, followed by $68,000 and $66,000. Resistance levels are seen near $80,000, $82,000 and $87,000.
The Relative Strength Index stood at 39.06, while its signal line was slightly higher at 39.32. The two indicators were nearly identical, with a difference of only about 0.25 points.
The RSI remains well below the midpoint and close to oversold territory. Momentum therefore remains weak, although the flattening of the indicator could suggest that the downward pressure is beginning to ease.
Meta AI’s base-case target is approximately 35% above the current level. September 15 represents the first major date that could indicate whether traders are beginning to incorporate that outlook into Bitcoin’s price.
Kalshi Puts the September 15 Decision in Focus
Bitcoin investors are watching developments in Washington, while Kalshi provides a way for eligible traders to take positions on specific real-world outcomes.
The platform offers event contracts covering areas such as politics, economic releases, Federal Reserve decisions, cryptocurrency and other market-moving events. This can become particularly relevant when a Bitcoin market thesis depends on identifiable events and dates rather than broader expectations.
Whether the focus is on legislation advancing through Congress, a policy change or another macroeconomic catalyst, event markets allow traders to express a view on the outcome itself rather than relying solely on a Bitcoin position.
With Sept. 15 emerging as an important near-term date for the Bitcoin market, the distinction between trading Bitcoin and trading an event outcome becomes more relevant. Eligible new users who register through CryptoNews can also receive $25 through its referral program.
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