Bitcoin Holds Near $65K as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Hopes

Economist says markets and Fed should look past weak jobs data

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said the latest employment figures were likely distorted by seasonal adjustments at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and do not accurately represent the broader labor market trend.

He pointed to a significant drop in the leisure and hospitality sector, which he attributed partly to the conclusion of the World Cup-related activity.

Brusuelas said the weaker jobs report is unlikely to influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, adding that investors and policymakers should instead focus on next week’s inflation data for a clearer picture of economic conditions.

U.S. labor market loses jobs in July

The U.S. labor market weakened for a second straight month in July, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility to maintain current interest rates despite ongoing inflation concerns.

The Labor Department’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, significantly missing economists’ expectations for an 80,000-job increase. The figure also marked a decline from June, which was revised down to a 20,000 gain from the previously reported 57,000 increase.

May’s employment growth was also revised sharply lower, falling to 63,000 jobs from the initial estimate of 129,000.

The last time monthly payrolls turned negative was in February, when the U.S. economy shed 156,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate improved slightly to 4.1%, beating forecasts of 4.2% and down from June’s 4.2%.

Financial markets reacted quickly following the report, with U.S. stock futures moving higher and Treasury yields declining. Precious metals also gained momentum, with gold rising about 3% and silver climbing nearly 6%. Bitcoin saw limited movement, trading modestly higher around the $65,000 level.

Additional labor data showed weaker-than-expected wage growth. Average hourly earnings increased only 0.1% in July, below forecasts of 0.3% and June’s 0.3% gain. On a yearly basis, wages rose 3.2%, compared with expectations of 3.5% and June’s 3.4% increase.

Before the employment report, markets were divided over whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its September meeting. CME FedWatch data showed traders had priced in a 55% chance of a rate hike before the report, but that probability fell to 46% after the weaker jobs numbers were released.

Bank of America warns bullish sentiment has reached extreme levels

Bank of America’s bull-and-bear indicator has climbed to its highest point since 2021, when massive pandemic-era stimulus helped fuel strong market optimism.

The bank’s analysts, led by Michael Hartnett, advised investors to reduce exposure to risk assets and consider defensive positions, longer-duration assets, and the U.S. dollar as the sentiment gauge rose to 9.7 from 9.4, close to its maximum reading of 10.

Unlike 2021, however, crypto markets have not benefited from the same wave of investor enthusiasm. While traditional markets continue setting records, Bitcoin and other digital assets remain significantly below previous highs.

Bitcoin miners move $37 million in BTC to NYDIG

Bitcoin miners transferred more than $37 million worth of BTC to NYDIG, a move that could potentially indicate preparation for selling.

However, NYDIG also provides custody and financing services, meaning the transfers may not necessarily represent market sales.

According to blockchain tracking data from Lookonchain, MARA Holdings moved 200 BTC worth about $12.86 million, while Riot Platforms transferred 381 BTC valued at approximately $24.51 million to NYDIG.

MetaMask introduces AI-powered trading wallet

MetaMask has launched an AI-driven Agent Wallet designed to allow users to deploy artificial intelligence agents for automated crypto activities, including market monitoring, swaps, and on-chain transactions.

The wallet allows users to connect AI tools such as Claude Code, Codex, and Cursor, while setting spending limits and controlling which protocols agents can access. Users can choose between a more conservative Guard Mode or a less restricted Beast Mode.

The wallet supports HyperLiquid and selected Ethereum-compatible networks. MetaMask said it includes transaction simulations, security checks, and MEV protection features before trades are executed.

Precious metals continue rally as silver climbs

Gold and silver continued their upward momentum on Friday, with gold gaining another 1% to trade near $4,300 per ounce and silver rising above $64 after a more than 4% daily increase.

Analysts said precious metals are benefiting from a rotation away from artificial intelligence-related stocks as investors reassess the pace of AI-driven growth.

Fidelity warns rising Treasury yields could pressure risk assets

Fidelity’s global macro director Jurrien Timmer warned that rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5% could create challenges for markets.

Timmer said the benchmark yield had moved into a “danger zone” at 4.73%, noting that historically, elevated long-term borrowing costs have often created market stress.

He suggested several factors could be driving the increase, including heavy financing demand from AI companies, doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will follow through on its hawkish stance, and reduced transparency from policymakers.

Higher bond yields often weigh on stocks and emerging sectors such as cryptocurrencies by tightening financial conditions.

Bitcoin trades near $64,350 ahead of jobs data

Bitcoin was trading around $64,350 on Friday, remaining mostly unchanged for the week as investors awaited the U.S. employment report. Ether held near $1,903, while major cryptocurrencies showed limited movement.

Market conditions became slightly less favorable after oil prices rose overnight following reports of renewed tensions involving Iran and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices could reignite inflation concerns, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy. Treasury yields moved higher, while the U.S. dollar recorded its strongest performance in two weeks.

For Bitcoin, the key market driver remains the interaction between inflation, interest rates, and liquidity conditions. A weaker jobs report could strengthen expectations for Fed easing and support risk assets, while stronger data combined with higher oil prices could reinforce a more cautious policy outlook.

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