Bitcoin’s Tight $59K–$60K Range Raises Risk of Sharp Breakdown

Bitcoin has been locked in a narrow $59,000–$60,000 range throughout the week, echoing a similar period of consolidation seen in 2024. However, this time the pattern is unfolding below key support levels within a broader downtrend, increasing the risk that a breakdown could send prices toward $40,000.

BTC has now traded within this tight band for five straight days. While rangebound movement is not unusual, analysts warn that the current setup is more concerning due to its position in the market cycle.

In 2024, bitcoin spent months consolidating between $55,000 and $70,000, occasionally breaking out in either direction. The key difference now, according to FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, is that the current range sits below prior support zones that previously triggered rebounds, as well as beneath both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Both moving averages are trending lower, reinforcing a bearish outlook and signaling a continuation of the downtrend rather than a base for recovery.

Kuptsikevich described the setup as risky for bullish traders, noting that unlike last year’s consolidation in an uptrend, the current one is forming in a declining market. If the range resolves to the downside, he sees the next major support level near $40,000.

On-chain data supports the cautious view. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted signs that long-term holders are beginning to capitulate, selling at a loss. While such phases have historically marked attractive entry points, they often come alongside near-term downside pressure.

Market activity also points to weak demand, with active addresses and transaction volumes remaining near the lower end of recent ranges during the decline.

Additional pressure stems from Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. Its preferred stock, STRC, recently fell to a record low near $71, while its common shares dropped 25% over the week to their lowest level since February 2024.

The company has indicated it may sell more than $1 billion worth of bitcoin to support its finances, marking a notable shift from founder Michael Saylor’s long-held “never sell” stance. The board has authorized management to sell from reserves without requiring case-by-case approval.

The prospect of a large seller entering an already thin market is adding to investor unease. At the same time, macro conditions remain unfavorable, with a strengthening U.S. dollar continuing to weigh on bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets.

Bitcoin is currently on track to end the second quarter with a loss of around 13%, while U.S. equities are heading toward one of their strongest quarters in years, fueled by optimism around AI-driven growth. This divergence underscores a broader rotation of capital away from crypto and into traditional markets.