Samson Mow Declares Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Brushing Off Analyst Doubts

The Bitcoin proponent argued that his call for a market bottom is based on the idea that the traditional four-year halving cycle has shifted, even as many analysts still anticipate further downside.

In a post on X on Sunday, Samson Mow განაცხადა that Bitcoin has already reached its bottom, suggesting that the conventional four-year halving cycle has sped up.

Mow questioned the confidence of those predicting a bottom in the coming months purely based on historical cycles. Known for his $1 million Bitcoin forecast and his involvement in El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy, he emphasized that such assumptions may no longer hold.

He pointed out that Bitcoin hit an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, arguing that even those who believe in cyclical patterns should recognize that the timeline appears to be accelerating. According to Mow, this supports the view that the bottom has already formed. He previously served as chief strategy officer at Blockstream, led by Adam Back.

Mow added that Bitcoin reaching a record high ahead of the halving indicates a shift in the traditional cycle, making past comparisons less dependable.

He is not alone in suggesting a change in Bitcoin’s cycle. Following the pre-halving rally to a new high, several analysts argued that rising institutional demand—particularly after the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—could reshape the usual post-halving trends. Others, however, cautioned that it may be too soon to confirm any structural change.

$55,000 Seen as More Likely

Not all market watchers share Mow’s optimism. Some analysts believe Bitcoin is either nearing a bottom or could still decline further, though they rely on different metrics.

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole recently noted that, based on a historically reliable contrarian signal, Bitcoin may not have much room left to fall.

This indicator looks at the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average is close to slipping below the 100-week line, forming what is known as a “bear cross.” In the past, such patterns have often aligned with market bottoms, leading some analysts to interpret the signal as bullish.

Meanwhile, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen suggested that Bitcoin is more likely to bottom around $55,000, possibly between August and October. Taking a more bearish stance, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted a bottom closer to $40,000 within the next six months.

CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten also indicated that Bitcoin could still drop by 15% or more before reaching its lowest point, citing the long-term 200-week moving average.

He noted that as Bitcoin tests this level, on-chain data points to the $50,000–$54,000 range as a potential key support zone.

Van Straten further explained that in every major bear market since 2011, Bitcoin has eventually fallen below its realized price before establishing a cycle low. So far, this has not occurred in the current cycle.