Bitcoin May Drop to $55K Before Bottoming, Says 10x Research

A stronger U.S. dollar and a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh are expected to keep pressure on crypto markets through the summer.

Bitcoin (BTC) likely has further downside ahead before the current bear phase concludes, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.

Thielen’s outlook is driven largely by the recent strength in the U.S. dollar, which has historically acted as a headwind for bitcoin. The view is reinforced by the Fed’s shift toward a tighter policy stance under Warsh, with markets increasingly considering the possibility of another rate hike rather than a cut—supporting the dollar while weighing on risk assets.

However, Thielen does not expect the downturn to persist indefinitely.

Three key indicators—global liquidity trends, the macroeconomic calendar, and bitcoin’s seasonal patterns—suggest a potential market bottom could form between late August and October.

One model tracking changes in global liquidity, which previously flagged a buying opportunity in March and a sell signal in April, points to late August as the next critical turning point. Seasonal trends also show September has typically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by stronger performance in October.

This timeline aligns with two major Federal Reserve meetings scheduled for September and October, as well as the U.S. midterm elections and the Treasury’s quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.

Taken together, Thielen expects bitcoin to break below $60,000 and potentially fall to $55,000 before establishing a cycle low.

“The takeaway is to remain patient now and focus on late August,” he said.